The Year of the Snake has officially concluded. The three major indices closed lower collectively today. For the full year, the Shanghai Composite Index accumulated a gain of over 25%, while the ChiNext Index rose more than 58%. From an individual stock perspective, excluding newly listed stocks this year, the top performer for the Year of the Snake was Swancor Advanced Materials Co.,Ltd., with a cumulative surge exceeding 18 times.
In today's session, the defense sector bucked the downward trend, with companies like Anda Weier, Yaxing Anchor Chain, and AECC Aviation Power closing limit-up. The semiconductor sector saw gains, with Weidao Nano and Fuchuang Precision rising over 10%. Robotics concept stocks were active, with Baida Precision and Tianqi Shares hitting the upper limit. On the downside, computing hardware stocks such as CPO adjusted, with Changxin BOC Technology falling over 10%. The space-based solar power concept declined, with Shuangliang Energy Saving falling by the daily limit.
Looking ahead to post-holiday market trends, Guoxin Securities pointed out that due to the extended closure of the A-share market during the Spring Festival holiday, some investors reduced activity to avoid potential uncertainties like overseas market volatility, leading to a decline in trading enthusiasm. However, the subdued trading before the holiday often reverses afterwards; historically, the average trading volume in the week following the Spring Festival has increased by 22.3% compared to the week before the holiday. Everbright Securities believes the current spring rally remains promising, anticipating that positive news will gradually be confirmed in both policy and fundamental aspects over the coming months. Huajin Securities is also optimistic about the continuation of the spring rally, citing potential improvements in economic and profit expectations during the holiday period, including favorable travel and consumption data, a possible recovery in property sales, maintained loose liquidity conditions, and neutral risk appetite.
Regarding post-holiday investment directions, institutions generally favor technology stocks. Galaxy Securities suggests the market focus may shift back to growth sectors with industrial catalysts and earnings certainty, such as AI applications, high-end manufacturing, and new energy. Soochow Securities highlights three areas: sufficiently adjusted domestic chips, semiconductor equipment, and computing/communication tech sectors; high-growth tracks like energy storage and wind power; and emerging industries outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan," such as commercial aerospace, 6G, nuclear power, and hydrogen energy.
In terms of fund flows today, main capital focused on sectors like semiconductors, marine equipment, and auto parts. Stocks with significant net inflows included Huasheng Tiancheng, Gigadevice Semiconductors, and Guofeng New Material.
Key News Recap: 1. Reports indicate former U.S. President Trump is preparing to cancel tariffs on certain metals and aluminum, as he faces an "affordability crisis" impacting support ahead of the midterm elections. The administration is reviewing the tariff list and plans exemptions for some goods, opting for targeted national security investigations instead of expanding levies. 2. The Silver Institute forecasts that global silver demand from the photovoltaic sector will decline by 2026 due to industry efforts to reduce silver use, pulling overall industrial demand down 2% to a four-year low of approximately 650 million ounces. However, strong growth in data centers, AI, and automotive electronics is expected to keep total demand stable. Supply tightness, geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainties support prices at elevated levels, with silver historically breaking $100 per ounce and reaching $117 recently. The market is projected to be in a deficit for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, indicating solid fundamentals. 3. Official data shows new home prices in first-tier cities fell 0.3% month-on-month in January, unchanged from the previous month. Shanghai remained flat, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen dropped 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.4%, respectively. Second-tier cities saw a 0.3% decline, moderating by 0.1 percentage points, and third-tier cities fell 0.4%, consistent with the prior month.
Post-Market Analysis: 1. Soochow Securities notes that A-share Spring Festival trends typically feature "volume contraction before the holiday and expansion after," with activity declining starting eight sessions pre-holiday and rebounding significantly from the second trading day post-holiday. 2. MinSheng Securities states that holiday-related market maneuvers have concluded, and post-holiday trading may see differentiation and potential style shifts, recommending profit-taking before the break. Allocations should prioritize cyclical dividend assets (e.g., coal), tech growth, and high-growth sectors like pharmaceuticals, defense, and autos showing turnaround potential.
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