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Crude oil fluctuated near five-month highs, with renewed escalation of conflict in the Middle East raising supply risks and pushing prices higher, though technical resistance capped the gains.
Brent settlement held above $109 a barrel; earlier, on Friday, traders positioned for the risk of an escalation in the Iran war over the weekend, driving oil prices up nearly 4%. On Monday, oil prices rose at one point before pulling back, after Iran said it had "no choice" but to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz to safeguard its own security, while U.S. lawmakers continued to oppose President Donald Trump's diesel export deal with Russia.
Several technical factors limited the oil price rally. Friday's advance pushed the 9-day relative strength index (RSI) into overbought territory, which typically signals a possible pullback in oil prices. According to Kpler, trend-following commodity trading advisors (CTAs) have reached their 100% cap on long positions in both Brent and WTI, indicating that their current buying capacity has been exhausted.
Amid escalating Middle East tensions, the physical market has shown signs of loosening. Despite mounting threats, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have remained stable. The dated Brent benchmark, the basis for European oil pricing, was around $117 a barrel on Monday, down nearly $16 from a week earlier. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News that oil flows in the Persian Gulf have recovered to about 80% of pre-conflict levels, though refined product shipments remain constrained.
"Dated Brent fell sharply on Friday while the paper market rose, highlighting just how complicated the factors traders are facing have become," said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. "Despite escalating attacks, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are continuing, and news on the Russia-Ukraine front has added another layer of uncertainty."
November-delivery WTI crude futures rose 2.2% in New York, settling at $103.66 a barrel; the November contract expires on Tuesday. The more actively traded December contract fell 0.5%, settling at $98.54 a barrel; December-delivery Brent crude futures fell 0.3%, settling at $109.55 a barrel.
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