China Galaxy Securities (CGS) released a research report stating that in the short term, national influenza surveillance reports since November indicate rising flu activity, suggesting investors monitor flu-related market trends. Over the mid-to-long term, the pharmaceutical sector's valuations, after prolonged adjustments, have recently shown a clear structural recovery trend:
1) Continued optimism for pharmaceutical innovation: Biopharma business development (BD) remains active, and potential interest rate cuts by major central banks globally may further boost valuations. 2) Recovery in healthcare investment: Improved secondary market conditions are driving a rebound in primary market financing, with sustained growth in CXO and upstream segments. 3) Medical equipment rebound: Tender data has improved, and pent-up demand from replacement cycles is gradually being released.
Key observations from CGS include: - Since November, flu-like cases in China have risen steadily, with influenza virus positivity rates at around 45% in outpatient visits, predominantly driven by the A(H3N2) strain. - Globally, flu activity remains low but shows an upward trend in some Northern Hemisphere countries. - According to the CDC's Week 47 (2025) flu surveillance report, sentinel hospitals in southern China reported an ILI% of 7.8%, higher than the previous week (6.8‰) and above 2022 and 2024 levels (3.4% and 3.3%), though slightly below 2023 (8.1%). Northern regions reported 8.6%, exceeding prior weeks and historical comparables. - From November 17–23, 2025, the top three pathogens detected were influenza virus (44.8%), rhinovirus (8.0%), and respiratory syncytial virus (4.3%). - Globally, influenza A remains dominant, with rising activity across all regions.
Treatment and prevention: - Antivirals like oseltamivir, zanamivir, and baloxavir marboxil are primary therapies, with most strains showing sensitivity. Sales of oseltamivir surged 237% YoY in mid-November, while baloxavir rose 180%. - Traditional Chinese medicines and antipyretics are also used to alleviate symptoms. - Vaccination remains critical for prevention, with 373 flu vaccine batches issued in 2025 (230 quadrivalent, up 3% YoY; 143 trivalent, down 18%).
Risks: - Macroeconomic pressures dampening healthcare spending; - Potential shortfalls in innovative drug reimbursement policies; - Geopolitical risks disrupting global orders; - Unanticipated price cuts from centralized procurement.
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