According to a research report released by Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. (GTHT), life insurance premium growth recovered during the January-September period of 2026, with monthly growth rising notably, indicating strong demand for business expansion. Property insurance premiums maintained positive growth, with non-auto insurance premiums growing steadily. The firm is optimistic about earnings improvement driven by lower liability costs and stabilizing asset returns, and maintains an "Overweight" rating on the sector.
The main views of Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. (GTHT) are as follows:
Life insurance premiums turned positive year-on-year in the first nine months of 2026, with monthly growth rising significantly. According to the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the insurance industry's cumulative original premium income for the first nine months of 2026 reached RMB 5,261.3 billion, up 0.9% year-on-year, recovering 0.5 percentage points from the first eight months. The life insurance sector's cumulative original premium income for the first nine months was RMB 3,863.1 billion, up 0.5% year-on-year, recovering 0.7 percentage points from the first eight months. Single-month original premiums in September reached RMB 291.2 billion, up 10.5% year-on-year.
By insurance type, life insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance recorded RMB 3,200.4 billion, RMB 635.2 billion, and RMB 27.4 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.9%, -1.1%, and -9.8%. Single-month growth rates were +14.6%, -1.0%, and -9.1% respectively. Policyholder investment fund new contributions for the first nine months totaled RMB 537.8 billion, up 6.9% year-on-year, while September single-month contributions fell 8.8% year-on-year. Unit-linked insurance separate account new contributions reached RMB 8.3 billion, down 50.2% year-on-year, with September single-month contributions down 77.7% year-on-year. Life insurance sector premium growth has recovered, and medium-to-long-term resident savings-type insurance allocation demand remains robust.
Property insurance premiums rose 2.0% year-on-year cumulatively in the first nine months of 2026, with non-auto insurance premium scale maintaining steady growth. According to the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the property insurance sector's cumulative original premium income for the first nine months of 2026 reached RMB 1,398.2 billion, up 2.0% year-on-year (previous value: 2.2%). Auto insurance and non-auto insurance original premium income were RMB 683.4 billion and RMB 714.8 billion respectively, roughly flat and up 4.0% year-on-year, with auto insurance and non-auto insurance accounting for 48.9% and 51.1% of property insurance premiums respectively. Single-month property insurance premiums in September reached RMB 150.9 billion, down 0.1% year-on-year (previous value: 1.8%), with single-month auto insurance down 0.2% year-on-year (previous value: -0.1%) and single-month non-auto insurance up 0.1% year-on-year (previous value: 4.6%).
Affected by the decline in auto sales (down 8.4% year-on-year in September), single-month auto insurance premiums edged lower in September. The steady growth of non-auto insurance was mainly driven by liability insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance, with cumulative year-on-year growth of 8.3%, 15.4%, and 5.5% respectively (previous values: 8.5%, 16.6%, and 6.3%), and single-month year-on-year growth rates of 7.3%, 3.2%, and 0.6% respectively (previous values: 8.7%, 28.9%, and 2.5%).
Both liability and asset operations are improving, supporting insurance stock valuation recovery. 1) On the liability side, the firm expects insurance companies to face significant base effects in the third quarter, with earnings under temporary pressure. However, medium-to-long-term savings demand for insurance remains strong, the appeal of participating insurance products persists, and insurers continue to develop diversified products. Based on expectations for next year's opening campaign, demand for business growth is expected to remain strong. 2) On the asset side, affected by recent equity market volatility, listed insurers have continued to optimize asset allocation, gradually balancing toward dividend and growth styles. The firm remains optimistic about the earnings improvement trend under insurers' prudent operations.
Investment recommendation: In an environment of market style rebalancing, along with improved liability costs and gradually stabilizing asset-side returns, the insurance sector valuation is expected to still have room for recovery. Maintain the industry "Overweight" rating.
Risk warnings: Decline in long-end interest rates; equity market volatility; limited sustainability of customer demand.
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