As of the day session close, domestic base metals mostly declined, with only Shanghai tin finishing in positive territory, gaining 0.83%. Shanghai nickel fell 1.13%. Losses for other metals were contained within 1%. The primary aluminum oxide contract dropped 0.42%, while the primary cast aluminum contract declined 0.65%. Elsewhere, the primary lithium carbonate contract surged 5.07%, the primary polysilicon contract fell 1.9%, and the primary silicon metal contract edged up 0.11%. The primary Europe containerized freight contract rose 1.64% to 2299 points.
In the ferrous sector, prices were broadly higher. Only stainless steel held flat at 15,435 yuan per tonne, while other metals gained over 1%. Iron ore advanced 1.6%, rebar increased 1.04%, and hot-rolled coil climbed 1.03%. Regarding coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.7% and coke gained 1.1%.
In overseas markets, as of 15:04, base metals showed mixed performance. LME nickel increased 0.57%, LME copper rose 0.27%, and LME tin advanced 0.19%. LME aluminum led the declines, falling 0.69%, followed by LME zinc down 0.65%, and LME lead dipping a slight 0.05%.
In the precious metals sector, as of 15:04, COMEX gold rose 0.68% and COMEX silver jumped 1.55%. Domestically, Shanghai gold increased 0.4% and Shanghai silver advanced 0.82%. Additionally, the primary platinum contract gained 0.36% and the primary palladium contract surged 3.1%.
Regarding macroeconomic developments domestically: China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April came in at 50.3%, indicating the manufacturing sector remained in expansion territory for the second consecutive month, reflecting stable景气 levels and continued positive operational trends, though the index dipped slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 126.2 billion yuan today. With 500 million yuan in reverse repos maturing, this resulted in a net injection of 125.7 billion yuan for the day. For the week, the PBOC conducted a total of 414.1 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos. Factoring in the maturity of 600 billion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and 12 billion yuan in reverse repos, the week saw a net withdrawal of 197.9 billion yuan.
The central parity rate of the yuan was set at 6.8628 per US dollar on April 30.
In currency markets, as of 15:04, the US dollar index was flat at 98.95. Analysts noted that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates within the 3.50%-3.75% range signals a continuation of its "wait-and-see" approach. A key takeaway is the Fed's reluctance to overlook energy-driven inflation. It was also suggested that political pressure for rate cuts has backfired, and any future cuts would likely be driven by clear labor market weakness rather than political influence.
Market expectations for US interest rates for the remainder of the year are increasingly tied to the duration of the Middle East conflict. One baseline view remains slightly more dovish than market pricing, anticipating the Fed will lean towards mitigating economic damage from energy shocks. However, risks are clearly tilted towards no action this year if energy price shocks broaden into wider inflation.
One major bank has abandoned its forecast for a Fed rate cut in 2026, now expecting cuts to commence next year instead, citing persistent inflation and resilient economic data which reduce the urgency for further policy easing. The bank expects the Fed to proceed cautiously, with potential rate cuts in January and March next year as inflationary pressures subside more clearly.
Key economic data releases scheduled for today include preliminary Q1 GDP and April CPI figures for France; Switzerland's KOF leading indicator; German unemployment and preliminary Q1 GDP; Eurozone preliminary April CPI and Q1 GDP, along with March unemployment; interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank; US weekly jobless claims, core PCE price index, personal spending, Q1 employment cost index, preliminary Q1 GDP and core PCE data, and the Chicago PMI for April.
Market participants will also focus on the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference, earnings calls from major tech firms, and policy announcements and press conferences from the Bank of England and European Central Bank. Notably, Chinese commodity exchanges will have no night session on April 30 due to the Labor Day holiday.
In the oil market, as of 15:04, both US and Brent crude prices advanced, with US crude up 1.55% and Brent crude gaining 2.03%. Prices extended gains in Asian trading as hopes for a resolution to the US-Iran stalemate faded. Brent crude futures recently hit their highest level in over four years amid pessimistic sentiment regarding peace talks. Analysts warn that prolonged shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will keep energy prices elevated for longer, increasing the economic cost globally. One rating agency has raised its price assumptions for WTI and Brent crude for the remainder of 2026 and for 2027, citing expanding supply losses. The oil rally shows no signs of abating, pressured by the prospect of an indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, indicating investor preparation for a prolonged conflict potentially restricting Persian Gulf oil supply persistently.
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