On November 13, yesterday's gold decline was driven by three main factors.
First, on a structural level, the daily chart fell back below its moving average band, returning the main trend to weakness and giving bears a qualitative confidence boost. Second, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December are essentially locked in, and the continuously strengthening dollar has reinforced gold's downward trend. Third, during yesterday's US session, Trump suddenly stated that the US does not need to reach an agreement with Iran, extinguishing hopes for Middle East peace and dealing gold another blow.
Any one of these three factors could trigger a short-term pullback in gold, and combined they have altered gold's medium-term setup. Although the market has now fallen to the trendline zone around 3860-3850 and shown some stabilization, a rebound that changes the weak structure remains difficult. Even if the market bounces from 3860-3850, it should only be viewed as a technical oversold rebound and as an opportunity to re-establish medium-to-short-term short positions.
Where to start
Looking at the current chart, combining the daily and 4-hour timeframes, gold may see some rebound during the day, but the upside should not be too large. On the topside, attention should first be paid to the 3920-3925 area, yesterday's European session pullback low. Whether this level holds will determine whether short-term sentiment leans bearish or bullish.
If 3925 is reclaimed, then focus on the 3955-3975 resistance zone during the day, which carries technical significance. A genuine break above this level could shelve short-term bearish expectations for gold and raise the risk of a trend reversal. Since gold has now fallen for three consecutive days and has pulled back to trendline support and the lower edge of the daily range, short-term downside space has largely been released, so do not expect a large intraday pullback. Continued attention can be paid to the 3860-3850 battle.
Why just 10 ASX 200 shares?
In summary, the main intraday theme for gold is a medium-term wave decline, with short-term low-level weak consolidation likely. Trading should focus on selling rallies with short positions, while low-level long scalps are only a secondary idea. A rebound to 3920-3925 can be sold lightly with a stop at 3930, taking partial profit first at 3910-3900, with the remainder targeting 3890 and 3870-3860, and some short positions can be held for a swing trade. If 3925 holds firm, do not chase longs; wait for pressure at 3955-3970 before shorting. Only if a pullback to 3870-3860 shows stabilization can a short-term long be attempted, but the risk is relatively high and requires flexible adjustment during the session.
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