In early trading on November 10, gold and silver prices suddenly surged sharply. Spot gold briefly broke through the $4,050 mark, reaching $4,042.71 per ounce by 10:00 AM, up 1.05% for the day. Spot silver rose 1.2% to $48.907 per ounce, while COMEX gold climbed 1.14% to $4,055.7 per ounce.
In the stock market, the A-share gold and jewelry index opened higher, gaining over 1.6% by around 10:00 AM. Several component stocks saw significant gains, with Chui Hua Jewelry rising over 6%, Hunan Gold Corporation Limited up more than 5%, and Chifeng Gold advancing nearly 3%.
Recent research from Deutsche Bank shows that gold's share in global central banks' "foreign exchange + gold" reserve assets has jumped from 24% at the end of June this year to 30% as of October 2025. In stark contrast, the U.S. dollar's share has declined from 43% to 40%.
This shift not only reflects strategic adjustments in central banks' asset allocations but also signals a potential turning point in the global monetary system. Deutsche Bank further projects that if gold prices rise to $5,790 per ounce, the reserve shares of the two assets would equalize without any changes in current holdings.
However, climbing from the current level of around $4,000 to $5,790 would require an additional 45% increase. Is this journey feasible?
Qu Rui, Deputy Director of the Research and Development Department at Oriental Jincheng, suggests that under scenarios such as accelerated global "de-dollarization," significant erosion of U.S. dollar credibility, heightened geopolitical risks, or surging demand for gold in critical industrial sectors like artificial intelligence, "this target could be achieved within a medium- to long-term timeframe of 5–8 years or even longer."
However, this path is not guaranteed. Zhao Qingming, Vice President of the Foreign Exchange Management Information Research Institute, remains cautious about whether gold prices can reach this level. He views Deutsche Bank's forecast as more of a theoretical exercise, with real-world implementation fraught with uncertainties due to multiple variables. Industry researchers also warn that if the Federal Reserve resumes its rate-hiking cycle, the U.S. dollar's credibility is restored, or global risk appetite improves significantly, this target could become unattainable.
Comments