这一轮熊市不一般：美股的传统对冲工具都失效了？

华尔街见闻2022-06-25

有分析称，对冲工具不再奏效主要因为市场对加息预期的反复变化，“抛售趋势经常被反弹走势所打断”。在美联储激进加息和经济衰退担忧的影响下，标普500指数从年初高点暴跌超20%后陷入熊市。但是，美国周四PMI数据给美联储加息泼了一盆冷水，市场对加息预期显著降温，使得标普500指数本周创两年来最大涨幅。由于近期投资者对加息预期的反复变化，过去在美股大跌中起作用的传统对冲工具如今都失灵了。一般而言，投资者...

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不死鸟.
2022-06-26
不死鸟.
ok
Lydia26
2022-06-26
Lydia26
SAD.😇😇😇
幸福满天飞
2022-06-26
幸福满天飞
[微笑]
chang168
2022-06-25
chang168
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Flahive）表示：我们正处于一个不寻常的时代，传统对冲工具失效的原因之一是利率正在被操纵，我们在上半年所经历的正是这一段（利率）调整期和这种变化所产生的摩擦（反复）。美股对冲工具为何不再奏效？有分析认为，这些对冲工具此番意外失效是因为“抛售趋势经常被反弹走势所打断”。这种反趋势反弹减缓了美股整体低迷的步伐，这使得投资者从价外看跌期权中获得利润变得更难。高盛策略师洛基·菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）对此解释：我们可以把这比作一个有免赔额的保单，假设每个月你的房子都会遭到损坏，但只是适度的损坏，所以你无法每次从保险公司索赔到很多，但是你一直都在支付保费。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9048630661,"gmtCreate":1656202605353,"gmtModify":1676535782800,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4094536006197120"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048630661","repostId":1120278199,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9048606882,"gmtCreate":1656201361446,"gmtModify":1676535782457,"author":{"id":"3578187504913334","authorId":"3578187504913334","authorIdStr":"3578187504913334","name":"Lydia26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7122be22449ec5deb57750d498050f43","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578187504913334"},"htmlText":"SAD.😇😇😇","listText":"SAD.😇😇😇","text":"SAD.😇😇😇","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048606882","repostId":1120278199,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9048887654,"gmtCreate":1656193474078,"gmtModify":1676535780982,"author":{"id":"4099482010818000","authorId":"4099482010818000","authorIdStr":"4099482010818000","name":"幸福满天飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd42d6a7d68497b6805872385c9f897e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4099482010818000"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048887654","repostId":1120278199,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120278199","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1656137102,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120278199?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-25 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ETF|ETF</a>为例，在2020年股市崩盘和2008-2009年金融危机期间，该基金的回报率分别为14%和18%，但是今年以来该基金下跌了24%，比标普500指数跌得更多。</p><p>对此，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">纽约梅隆银行</a>财富管理公司的固定收益投资主管约翰·弗拉维（John Flahive）表示：</p><blockquote>我们正处于一个不寻常的时代，传统对冲工具失效的原因之一是利率正在被操纵，我们在上半年所经历的正是这一段（利率）调整期和这种变化所产生的摩擦（反复）。</blockquote><p>美股对冲工具为何不再奏效？</p><p>有分析认为，<b>这些对冲工具此番意外失效是因为“抛售趋势经常被反弹走势所打断”。</b></p><p>这种反趋势反弹减缓了美股整体低迷的步伐，这使得投资者从价外看跌期权中获得利润变得更难。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>策略师洛基·菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）对此解释：</p><blockquote>我们可以把这比作一个有免赔额的保单，假设每个月你的房子都会遭到损坏，但只是适度的损坏，所以你无法每次从保险公司索赔到很多，但是你一直都在支付保费。</blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>这一轮熊市不一般：美股的传统对冲工具都失效了？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n这一轮熊市不一般：美股的传统对冲工具都失效了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-06-25 14:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>有分析称，对冲工具不再奏效主要因为市场对加息预期的反复变化，“抛售趋势经常被反弹走势所打断”。在美联储激进加息和经济衰退担忧的影响下，标普500指数从年初高点暴跌超20%后陷入熊市。但是，美国周四PMI数据给美联储加息泼了一盆冷水，市场对加息预期显著降温，使得标普500指数本周创两年来最大涨幅。由于近期投资者对加息预期的反复变化，过去在美股大跌中起作用的传统对冲工具如今都失灵了。一般而言，投资者...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","GS":"高盛","BK":"纽约梅隆银行","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSFF":"Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120278199","content_text":"有分析称，对冲工具不再奏效主要因为市场对加息预期的反复变化，“抛售趋势经常被反弹走势所打断”。在美联储激进加息和经济衰退担忧的影响下，标普500指数从年初高点暴跌超20%后陷入熊市。但是，美国周四PMI数据给美联储加息泼了一盆冷水，市场对加息预期显著降温，使得标普500指数本周创两年来最大涨幅。由于近期投资者对加息预期的反复变化，过去在美股大跌中起作用的传统对冲工具如今都失灵了。一般而言，投资者可以利用股指期货、期权和国债进行对冲，或者利用情绪判断市场底部。然而本周美股突如其来的反弹并加速上行，不仅扭转了三周连跌的势头，也令使用对冲工具的投资者付出了昂贵的代价。看跌期权、看跌情绪和国债等对冲工具纷纷失效近期，除了标普500指数的5%价外看跌期权不再奏效，其他对冲工具也纷纷失灵。比如，今年上半年美股整体大幅下跌，以往这种在投资者疯狂抛售的过程中，极度悲观的市场情绪会被视为逆势买入的信号，但是如今市场情绪的反复无常使得看跌情绪读数不再奏效。同样失灵的还有国债，在过去的熊市中，投资者会利用国债来避险，但如今这一对冲工具也失效了。以iShares 20年以上国债Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF为例，在2020年股市崩盘和2008-2009年金融危机期间，该基金的回报率分别为14%和18%，但是今年以来该基金下跌了24%，比标普500指数跌得更多。对此，纽约梅隆银行财富管理公司的固定收益投资主管约翰·弗拉维（John Flahive）表示：我们正处于一个不寻常的时代，传统对冲工具失效的原因之一是利率正在被操纵，我们在上半年所经历的正是这一段（利率）调整期和这种变化所产生的摩擦（反复）。美股对冲工具为何不再奏效？有分析认为，这些对冲工具此番意外失效是因为“抛售趋势经常被反弹走势所打断”。这种反趋势反弹减缓了美股整体低迷的步伐，这使得投资者从价外看跌期权中获得利润变得更难。高盛策略师洛基·菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）对此解释：我们可以把这比作一个有免赔额的保单，假设每个月你的房子都会遭到损坏，但只是适度的损坏，所以你无法每次从保险公司索赔到很多，但是你一直都在支付保费。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9048353158,"gmtCreate":1656146219574,"gmtModify":1676535776533,"author":{"id":"4095222248421940","authorId":"4095222248421940","authorIdStr":"4095222248421940","name":"chang168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b9f00f515067205a87a2a93dddcea18","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095222248421940"},"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048353158","repostId":1120278199,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":69,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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