这一轮熊市不一般：美股的传统对冲工具都失效了？

华尔街见闻2022-06-25

有分析称，对冲工具不再奏效主要因为市场对加息预期的反复变化，“抛售趋势经常被反弹走势所打断”。在美联储激进加息和经济衰退担忧的影响下，标普500指数从年初高点暴跌超20%后陷入熊市。但是，美国周四PMI数据给美联储加息泼了一盆冷水，市场对加息预期显著降温，使得标普500指数本周创两年来最大涨幅。由于近期投资者对加息预期的反复变化，过去在美股大跌中起作用的传统对冲工具如今都失灵了。一般而言，投资者...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

不死鸟.
2022-06-26
不死鸟.
ok
Lydia26
2022-06-26
Lydia26
SAD.😇😇😇
幸福满天飞
2022-06-26
幸福满天飞
[微笑]
chang168
2022-06-25
chang168
Up

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120278199?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-06-25 14:05","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1120278199","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"这一轮熊市不一般：美股的传统对冲工具都失效了？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>有分析称，对冲工具不再奏效主要因为市场对加息预期的反复变化，“抛售趋势经常被反弹走势所打断”。在美联储激进加息和经济衰退担忧的影响下，标普500指数从年初高点暴跌超20%后陷入熊市。但是，美国周四PMI数据给美联储加息泼了一盆冷水，市场对加息预期显著降温，使得标普500指数本周创两年来最大涨幅。由于近期投资者对加息预期的反复变化，过去在美股大跌中起作用的传统对冲工具如今都失灵了。一般而言，投资者...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>这一轮熊市不一般：美股的传统对冲工具都失效了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n这一轮熊市不一般：美股的传统对冲工具都失效了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-06-25 14:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>有分析称，对冲工具不再奏效主要因为市场对加息预期的反复变化，“抛售趋势经常被反弹走势所打断”。在美联储激进加息和经济衰退担忧的影响下，标普500指数从年初高点暴跌超20%后陷入熊市。但是，美国周四PMI数据给美联储加息泼了一盆冷水，市场对加息预期显著降温，使得标普500指数本周创两年来最大涨幅。由于近期投资者对加息预期的反复变化，过去在美股大跌中起作用的传统对冲工具如今都失灵了。一般而言，投资者...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4552","symbol_name":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"","article_id":"1120278199","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120278199","pubTimestamp":1656137102,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"有分析称，对冲工具不再奏效主要因为市场对加息预期的反复变化，“抛售趋势经常被反弹走势所打断”。在美联储激进加息和经济衰退担忧的影响下，标普500指数从年初高点暴跌超20%后陷入熊市。但是，美国周四PM","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","GS":"高盛","PSFF":"Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK":"纽约梅隆银行","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"translate_title":"This bear market is unusual: the traditional hedging tools of US stocks have failed?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6621ce0ec157a94d129d9310f40bf395","symbols_score_info":{"QQQ":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"PSFF":0.9,"GS":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"EEME":0.9,"BK":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"有分析称，对冲工具不再奏效主要因为市场对加息预期的反复变化，“抛售趋势经常被反弹走势所打断”。在美联储激进加息和经济衰退担忧的影响下，标普500指数从年初高点暴跌超20%后陷入熊市。但是，美国周四PMI数据给美联储加息泼了一盆冷水，市场对加息预期显著降温，使得标普500指数本周创两年来最大涨幅。由于近期投资者对加息预期的反复变化，过去在美股大跌中起作用的传统对冲工具如今都失灵了。一般而言，投资者可以利用股指期货、期权和国债进行对冲，或者利用情绪判断市场底部。然而本周美股突如其来的反弹并加速上行，不仅扭转了三周连跌的势头，也令使用对冲工具的投资者付出了昂贵的代价。看跌期权、看跌情绪和国债等对冲工具纷纷失效近期，除了标普500指数的5%价外看跌期权不再奏效，其他对冲工具也纷纷失灵。比如，今年上半年美股整体大幅下跌，以往这种在投资者疯狂抛售的过程中，极度悲观的市场情绪会被视为逆势买入的信号，但是如今市场情绪的反复无常使得看跌情绪读数不再奏效。同样失灵的还有国债，在过去的熊市中，投资者会利用国债来避险，但如今这一对冲工具也失效了。以iShares 20年以上国债Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF为例，在2020年股市崩盘和2008-2009年金融危机期间，该基金的回报率分别为14%和18%，但是今年以来该基金下跌了24%，比标普500指数跌得更多。对此，纽约梅隆银行财富管理公司的固定收益投资主管约翰·弗拉维（John Flahive）表示：我们正处于一个不寻常的时代，传统对冲工具失效的原因之一是利率正在被操纵，我们在上半年所经历的正是这一段（利率）调整期和这种变化所产生的摩擦（反复）。美股对冲工具为何不再奏效？有分析认为，这些对冲工具此番意外失效是因为“抛售趋势经常被反弹走势所打断”。这种反趋势反弹减缓了美股整体低迷的步伐，这使得投资者从价外看跌期权中获得利润变得更难。高盛策略师洛基·菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）对此解释：我们可以把这比作一个有免赔额的保单，假设每个月你的房子都会遭到损坏，但只是适度的损坏，所以你无法每次从保险公司索赔到很多，但是你一直都在支付保费。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9048630661,"gmtCreate":1656202605353,"gmtModify":1676535782800,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048630661","repostId":1120278199,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9048606882,"gmtCreate":1656201361446,"gmtModify":1676535782457,"author":{"id":"3578187504913334","authorId":"3578187504913334","name":"Lydia26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7122be22449ec5deb57750d498050f43","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578187504913334","authorIdStr":"3578187504913334"},"htmlText":"SAD.😇😇😇","listText":"SAD.😇😇😇","text":"SAD.😇😇😇","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048606882","repostId":1120278199,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9048887654,"gmtCreate":1656193474078,"gmtModify":1676535780982,"author":{"id":"4099482010818000","authorId":"4099482010818000","name":"幸福满天飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd42d6a7d68497b6805872385c9f897e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4099482010818000","authorIdStr":"4099482010818000"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048887654","repostId":1120278199,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9048353158,"gmtCreate":1656146219574,"gmtModify":1676535776533,"author":{"id":"4095222248421940","authorId":"4095222248421940","name":"chang168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b9f00f515067205a87a2a93dddcea18","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095222248421940","authorIdStr":"4095222248421940"},"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048353158","repostId":1120278199,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":69,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1120278199"}