On April 20th, the price of Bitcoin has recently rebounded as the annual flagship Bitcoin conference approaches. ZFX Shanhai Securities believes that this Las Vegas event may become a short-term market focus, but historical data indicates that pre-conference price increases are often difficult to sustain. Bitcoin is currently trading around $75,000, having recovered from a local low of $60,000 touched in early February, after its price had fallen more than 50% from its historical peak last October. Market anticipation ahead of the key event has driven this rebound, but its continuation remains to be seen.
Historical data from Galaxy Research and Investing.com, covering records from 2019 to 2025, shows that Bitcoin typically experiences some gains before various annual conferences, while its performance during the events is relatively stable, with a higher risk of pullback in the following days to weeks. ZFX Shanhai Securities analysis indicates that Bitcoin rose approximately 10% before the 2019 San Francisco conference and about 3% before the 2024 Nashville conference, suggesting that markets tend to position themselves early during high-attention periods, but prices often struggle to maintain upward momentum if the conference content falls short of expectations.
Specific cases show that during the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin declined only marginally by 1% during the Miami conference, but accumulated a drop of nearly 30% in the subsequent weeks. Similar situations occurred during major conferences in 2019, 2021, and 2023, where even brief gains during the events were often followed by weak post-conference performance. ZFX Shanhai Securities points out that this phenomenon reflects the sensitivity of market sentiment to short-term fluctuations and the concentration of liquidity due to high pre-conference attention, which can easily create profit-taking pressure.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's current price near $75,000 is in the so-called "maximum pain point" zone, characterized by high positioning concentration. ZFX Shanhai Securities believes this implies that during the conference or in the following days, the market may face risks of a correction or price squeeze. Investors should be wary of short-term liquidity volatility induced by the event and should combine technical support and resistance levels for flexible trading strategies to cope with potential rapid retracements.
Overall, ZFX Shanhai Securities concludes that while the price rebound ahead of the Las Vegas flagship conference presents short-term opportunities, both historical data and technical analysis suggest the rally is unlikely to be sustained long-term. Investors should closely monitor conference developments, shifts in market sentiment, and positioning levels around key price zones, while preparing risk management measures to handle possible short-term corrections or liquidity events.
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