International oil prices have staged another strong rebound.
On November 5, buying interest in the international crude oil market heated up noticeably, with Brent crude rising as much as 5.0% during the session to $99.47 per barrel, while WTI crude gained 3.5% intraday to $91.22 per barrel.
Brent crude has once again approached the $100 per barrel psychological threshold, reflecting renewed concerns in the market over the security of Middle East crude oil supply.
It is worth noting that this round of oil price rebound is not driven purely by demand growth, but is more influenced by factors such as geopolitical risk, the safety of key shipping lanes, and changes in global crude oil inventories.
Previously, the market had bet on a easing of U.S.-Iran relations and a cooling of regional conflicts, which pushed oil prices sharply lower, but the latest round of tanker attacks has once again shattered market optimism.
Judging from recent market performance, the sharp fluctuations in international oil prices largely reflect investors' rapidly shifting expectations regarding the Middle East situation.
First, the shipping security issue in the Strait of Hormuz remains the core variable affecting global crude oil supply.
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and is one of the world's most important energy transportation corridors.
The crude oil exports of major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran all depend on this corridor to varying degrees.
Once shipping through the strait is persistently disrupted, it could not only affect Middle East crude oil exports but also drive up global crude oil transportation costs, insurance fees and the risk premium in the spot market.
According to a November 5 report, recent tanker attacks have prompted the market to reassess the risks of Middle East energy transportation.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that at least five ship-related incidents have occurred in the region since early November, while related incidents reached 35 in October.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard also said that two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire after passing through routes related to the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, Ukraine's attacks on Russian refining facilities have also raised market concerns that Russia's refined product exports may be further affected.
With both crude oil supply and refined product supply facing potential disruptions, the market's bullish sentiment has been further reinforced.
Second, diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran still faces considerable uncertainty.
Previously, the U.S. midterm election results had briefly led the market to hope that the United States would push to end the Iran conflict, with investors inclined to believe that regional tensions could ease and crude oil supply would gradually recover.
However, diplomatic expectations do not equal actual supply recovery, especially when shipping security has not yet been effectively guaranteed, crude oil traders still need to pay a risk premium for potential supply disruptions.
According to reports, market analysis firm Eurasia Group recently adjusted its assessment of the U.S.-Iran situation, raising the probability of a prolonged stalemate to 30% and warning that if the conflict further escalates, Brent crude could rise to $110 to $125 per barrel.
It can be seen that even if the market temporarily trades on expectations of easing tensions, geopolitical risk remains an important support for oil prices.
Third, global crude oil inventories continue to decline, and the supply buffer capacity is being tested.
The International Energy Agency (IEA)'s October Oil Market Report showed that as of the end of September 2026, global observable oil inventories had decreased by about 509 million barrels compared with the end of February, with onshore inventories continuing to fall and inventory buffer capacity clearly weakening.
Although some Middle East oil-producing countries had previously pushed for export recovery, recent energy infrastructure and tanker transportation have once again been hit by security risks, and the stability of supply recovery remains questionable.
This means that the current crude oil market not only faces uncertainty in supply expectations, but actual inventory levels have also weakened the market's ability to cope with sudden supply disruptions to a certain extent.
Once the exports of important oil-producing countries are blocked again, oil prices could react more violently than normal supply-demand changes would suggest.
Looking ahead, the crude oil market may present a pattern of short-term risk premium support and medium- to long-term supply-demand fundamental bargaining.
In the short term, Brent crude's renewed push toward $100 per barrel means the market is re-pricing Middle East geopolitical risk.
If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted, or if attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure increase further, concerns about crude oil supply disruptions may continue to drive capital into the energy market.
Particularly noteworthy is that rising crude oil prices may create a certain self-reinforcing effect: higher oil prices push up shipping and insurance costs, prompting some traders to adjust transportation routes or delay deliveries, which in turn affects spot supply efficiency and further amplifies market concerns about tight supply.
However, $100 per barrel may also become an important psychological battleground between bulls and bears in the short term.
If the United States and Iran resume effective diplomatic communication, regional shipping risks decline, or Middle East oil-producing countries continue to restore exports, the currently accumulated geopolitical risk premium may quickly dissipate.
Therefore, a single-day 5% gain cannot simply be regarded as the establishment of a new long-term bull market.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, the global crude oil supply-demand relationship remains the key determinant of the oil price trend.
In its October report, the IEA projected that global oil demand in 2026 will decline by about 2.6 million barrels per day year-on-year, mainly affected by factors such as fuel supply constraints caused by the Middle East conflict, higher energy prices and a weakening economic outlook.
At the same time, the IEA expects global oil supply to recover noticeably in 2027, with full-year supply growth potentially reaching 7.7 million barrels per day.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s October Short-Term Energy Outlook projected that as Middle East supply restrictions gradually ease, the Brent crude spot price may fall back to $87 per barrel by the second quarter of 2027 and further decline to $74 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2027.
The forecasts of both institutions indicate that if regional conflicts gradually ease and crude oil transportation corridors return to normal, the global supply side may once again form a suppressant effect on oil prices.
However, Goldman Sachs still announced an upward revision to its crude oil price forecasts, citing two interrelated reasons: first, considerable supply downside risks are likely to sustain an elevated risk premium in the near term; second, Goldman Sachs' newly introduced "global supply disruption reserve" covers high disruption risks in the medium term and lowers its medium-term global oil production forecast.
Specifically, Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast for December this year from $90 per barrel to $105 and WTI from $81 to $94; it also raised its 2027 average price forecast from $80 to $88 for Brent and from $73 to $78 for WTI.
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