Following the completion of apple storage in 2025, a situation has emerged in cold storage facilities where "growers struggle to sell, while merchants struggle to buy," with the core issue being an inventory structure that differs from previous years. In January, prices for medium and lower-medium quality goods in origin cold storages experienced slight declines, while prices for premium quality goods remained high. Merchants showed a stronger preference for selling their own stock, with limited purchases from growers. If this trend continues, a significant price polarization is highly probable after the Spring Festival.
In January, prices for premium cold storage goods remained stable, while prices for lower-medium quality goods declined. Since December 2025, the formal sales period for cold storage apples began. During this period, aside from merchants in Gansu production areas actively purchasing from growers, most merchants primarily focused on selling their own inventories, resulting in very few external purchases. A small number of merchants procured either low-priced goods or high-quality premium apples, with transactions for growers' medium-quality goods being particularly scarce.
In Shandong, the weighted average transaction price for first and second-grade paper-bag Fuji apples sized 80# and above was 4.24 yuan/jin in January, unchanged from December, but 0.49 yuan/jin higher than the average price in January last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.07%. The closing price at the end of January was 4.24 yuan/jin, flat compared to the end of December and up 0.49 yuan/jin from the end of January last year, an increase of 13.07%.
In Shaanxi, the weighted average transaction price for semi-premium paper-bag Fuji apples sized 70# and above was 3.73 yuan/jin in January, unchanged from December, but 0.68 yuan/jin higher than the average price in January last year, a year-on-year increase of 22.30%. The closing price at the end of January was 3.73 yuan/jin, unchanged from the end of December and up 0.71 yuan/jin from the end of January last year, an increase of 23.51%.
While premium quality prices remained stable, prices for medium and lower-quality goods saw slight declines. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price for growers' first, second, and third-grade goods sized 80# and above dropped from 3.5-3.6 yuan/jin to 3.0-3.5 yuan/jin. In Luochuan, the transaction price for growers' soft semi-premium goods starting from size 70# also declined to 3.5-3.6 yuan/jin.
The scarcity of premium goods and abundance of inferior goods have led to divergent market trends for different specifications. Changes in the origin cold storage market are accompanied by shifts in trader sentiment. From the procurement phase to the early sales period, most industry participants maintained an optimistic outlook on the current season's apple market. However, as sales progressed, trader sentiment gradually shifted from optimism to pessimism. This change in sentiment is influenced by multiple factors.
From the traders' perspective, although procurement prices were high during the acquisition season, market acceptance of premium quality prices was relatively good, allowing sales of their own inventories to generally yield some profit. The rate of high-quality fruit this season is low, while the defect rate in growers' cold storage inventories is generally high. After purchasing from growers and sorting, even though the raw material cost is low, the actual finished product price often exceeds that of their own stock, with inconsistent quality. In most cases, profit margins are thin, reducing merchants' willingness to purchase from growers.
From the market perspective, this year's inherently high procurement prices have led to apple sales prices being 1.0-1.2 yuan/jin higher than last year, with high prices suppressing some market consumption. Additionally, ample supplies of other fruits, particularly low-priced citrus, have also impacted apple sales.
Therefore, the core factor causing the current situation of "growers struggling to sell and merchants struggling to buy" is the relatively small proportion of premium goods in cold storage, coupled with a high proportion of medium and inferior quality goods with high defect rates. Meanwhile, this year's high procurement prices have led to elevated grower expectations, lacking a process for low-priced destocking of inferior goods.
The divergence in pricing between premium and inferior apples makes significant post-holiday polarization highly likely. This year's apple storage volume is inherently low, only exceeding the storage volume from the 2018/19 season. Additionally, a significant quantity of preserved fruit apples in cold storage does not require market channels for destocking, which itself is a favorable structure for market development. However, due to inconsistent quality and growers' high asking prices for low-quality goods, merchants find no profit margin in purchasing from growers, leading to slow destocking of growers' inventories. In contrast, merchants' high-priced goods, with guaranteed quality, enjoy good market acceptance, and many traders report tight supplies of premium goods. Consequently, during the later sales period, growers' prices need to decrease to a level where the post-sorting finished product price is roughly equivalent to the cost of merchants' own premium inventories to facilitate effective destocking of growers' stocks.
Long-term, prices for premium and inferior apples are expected to gradually diverge, with premium goods maintaining high levels or even trending higher if supplies remain tight, while prices for medium-quality growers' goods may decline. Short-term, with the peak consumption season before the Spring Festival, market demand will support prices, and the mainstream market is expected to remain stable. It is forecast that the weighted price for first and second-grade goods sized 80# and above in Shandong will maintain at 4.24 yuan/jin, while the weighted price for semi-premium goods sized 70# and above in Shaanxi will maintain at 3.73 yuan/jin.
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