Following a period of sustained selling pressure, precious metals prices have recently staged a rebound. In early Wednesday trading, spot gold prices rose approximately 2.4% to $4119.04 per ounce, while spot silver traded at $59.47 per ounce, a gain of roughly 6.3% from last weekend's level of $55.9 per ounce.
However, analysts suggest that the path for gold and silver prices to reclaim the historic highs set earlier this year remains arduous. In a Wednesday report, ING commodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noted that the recent upswing in gold and silver is primarily due to "bargain hunting following recent price weakness," rather than stemming from "any material change in the geopolitical or macroeconomic backdrop."
Silver May Outperform as Gold Faces Continued Headwinds
Despite a powerful rally that spanned all of 2025 and extended into this year, both precious metals remain significantly below the record highs achieved earlier this year. Gold and silver both hit their all-time peaks in late January, with spot gold reaching $5589.38 per ounce and silver touching $121.67 per ounce.
Sustained high interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar have diminished the appeal of precious metals, while the war in the Middle East driving up oil prices has further altered capital flows and trading logic in other market segments.
"While tensions in the Middle East continue to provide support for precious metals, the market is weighing up weakening U.S. economic data against the inflationary risks from higher energy costs," Patterson and Manthey stated. They added that gold "is likely to remain highly sensitive to changes in the energy market and U.S. monetary policy expectations."
Nevertheless, they indicated that silver "could continue to outperform gold" if strength persists in the industrial metals market alongside sustained safe-haven demand. "Silver's performance reflects not only its safe-haven attributes but also support from an improved overall sentiment in industrial metals, particularly driven by copper's performance," they explained.
In contrast, analysts at Bank of America see further downside risk for gold prices following their worst quarterly performance in 13 years for the three months ending June. "The death cross signal, elevated net-long positioning, and similarities to major top formations all increase the risk of a longer and deeper correction," Bank of America stated in a July 16 report.
A "death cross" is a technical chart pattern that occurs when a security's short-term moving average—typically the 50-day—crosses below its long-term moving average, usually the 200-day.
UBS, however, expresses skepticism about silver's rebound potential and cautions investors against rushing to establish silver investment positions. The Swiss bank has lowered its perceived attractive buying target for silver from around $55 per ounce to a range of $48 to $50 per ounce.
"We believe the headwinds facing silver in the near term are likely to persist, as escalating Middle East tensions, higher opportunity costs, and a strong U.S. dollar continue to weigh on investor sentiment," wrote UBS strategist Dominic Schnider in a July 20 report. "From a macro perspective, the backdrop for silver does not provide sufficient impetus for investors to add long positions. With investment demand remaining volatile, silver prices have yet to find a solid floor."
Mining Executives See Bright Long-Term Outlook
Meanwhile, Diane Garrett, Executive Chair and CEO of U.S. gold and silver developer Hycroft Mining, stated in a Tuesday interview that the recent price declines in gold and silver represent a "normal correction," adding that "this is not a broken bull market."
"The fundamentals for the commodity markets remain very strong, particularly for gold as it has surpassed U.S. Treasuries to become the number one asset class and is becoming the foundational architecture of the financial system," she said. "People do not want to hold hard assets backed by the debt of other countries, and we have seen central banks buying gold for 17 consecutive months. The data is very compelling."
She added, "The same is true for silver, as it is not only a monetary metal but also an industrial metal. It is powering the AI revolution and the development of supercomputers—all of these areas require silver, and there is no substitute."
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