Abstract
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. will release fiscal Q3 2026 results on February 05, 2026 Pre-Market, with consensus pointing to mid-single-digit revenue growth and improving profitability metrics amid resilient demand in core channels.
Market Forecast
For the current fiscal quarter, market expectations center on revenue of USD 657.09 million, EBIT of USD 220.39 million, and EPS of USD 1.65, implying year-over-year growth of 5.97%, 2.55%, and 6.65%, respectively. The outlook also implies stabilization in the gross profit margin and a healthier net profit trajectory, supporting an improved adjusted EPS profile on a year-over-year basis. The main business mix is expected to reflect steady wholesale shipments and healthy direct-to-consumer traffic, with a constructive view on channel profitability. The segment with the greatest potential remains direct-to-consumer, where revenue growth is projected to outpace wholesale on sustained demand for core outerwear, contributing a larger share of revenue and margin expansion on a year-over-year basis.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous fiscal quarter, Canada Goose reported revenue of USD 272.60 million, a gross profit margin of 62.40%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD -15.20 million, a net profit margin of -5.58%, and adjusted EPS of USD -0.14, with revenue up 1.79% year-over-year and EPS down 3.80% year-over-year. A notable operational highlight was sequential improvement in net profit trends, with quarter-on-quarter growth in net profit of 87.86%, reflecting tighter expense control and improved gross margin resilience. Main business performance showed wholesale revenue of USD 135.90 million and direct-to-consumer revenue of USD 126.60 million, with other revenue at USD 10.10 million, underlining balanced channel contribution as peak-season inventory positioning progressed.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Wholesale Channel Dynamics
Wholesale is poised to deliver a stable quarter as retailers maintain disciplined inventory levels and order cadence aligns with peak-season sell-through patterns. Revenue of USD 135.90 million last quarter signaled consistent account health and readiness for seasonal demand, a backdrop that supports Q3 replenishment. Margin preservation remains a focal point; gross profit margin at 62.40% last quarter underscores the pricing power of the core assortment and the efficiency gains from sourcing and production planning. The wholesale trajectory will likely be influenced by geographic mix and product allocations, with outerwear leading unit economics and contributing to EBIT uplift. Given the prior quarter’s modest revenue growth and improving sequential net profit, the channel is set up for an orderly Q3, with risk management centered on cautious bookings and balanced markdown exposure.
Most Promising Business: Direct-to-Consumer Momentum
Direct-to-consumer continues to offer the most significant growth and margin-accretive potential as store productivity and digital conversion drive higher average selling prices and favorable product mix. With last quarter revenue of USD 126.60 million and visible traffic resilience, DTC is positioned to benefit from peak-season demand for heritage parkas and expanded lifestyle assortments, while tight inventory discipline supports full-price sell-through. The forecasted EPS of USD 1.65 and EBIT of USD 220.39 million imply elevated profitability consistent with stronger DTC contribution, given higher gross margins and lower promotional intensity in owned channels. Operational enhancements—ranging from clienteling to localized merchandising—can translate into improved conversion and reduced returns, reinforcing margin durability. DTC’s momentum is anticipated to outpace wholesale on a year-over-year basis, strengthening the company’s overall margin profile in the current quarter.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Three elements are most likely to drive the stock this quarter: sell-through quality in peak cold-weather regions, channel mix favoring DTC, and gross margin stability versus expectations. Strong sell-through in key markets can validate the revenue estimate of USD 657.09 million and support upside risk to EBIT. A continued mix shift toward DTC should underpin adjusted EPS expansion, especially if promotional cadence remains contained. Gross margin stability near last quarter’s 62.40% would signal healthy pricing and cost control; any meaningful deviation—positive or negative—could recalibrate investor expectations for the back half, given the sensitivity of earnings to product mix and markdowns.
Analyst Opinions
Recent institutional views skew bullish. TD Cowen reaffirmed a Buy rating with a USD 16.00 price target, citing constructive fundamentals and channel execution that support improving profitability. The majority of previews emphasize the potential for DTC-led margin expansion, disciplined wholesale inventory management, and a seasonal demand setup that aligns with forecasted revenue of USD 657.09 million and EPS of USD 1.65. The bullish stance rests on the observed quarter-on-quarter improvement in net profit and the company’s ability to sustain a high gross profit margin, which together underpin confidence in near-term earnings resilience. Analysts note that maintaining mix advantages and safeguarding gross margin could provide incremental upside if cold-weather demand tracks favorably through the fiscal third quarter, with EBIT growth projected at 2.55% year-over-year. Overall, the prevailing view anticipates Canada Goose to meet or modestly exceed consensus on revenue and adjusted EPS, supported by robust DTC performance and stable wholesale sell-through.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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