On February 9, COMEX gold saw a fluctuating recovery, climbing back above the 5,000 mark to close at $5,084.2 per ounce, marking a gain of 2.10%. Domestically, the overnight session for SHFE gold opened lower but moved higher, finishing at 1,127.00 yuan per gram, up 1.00%.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Beshent commented last night that even if Warsh were to become Fed Chair, the balance sheet reduction would not proceed rapidly. This indicates that, under pressure from the Trump administration, Federal Reserve policy is likely to remain cautious, prioritizing financial stability over premature tightening. His remarks eased market concerns about Warsh's perceived hawkish stance. Additionally, U.S. non-farm payroll data is scheduled for release this Wednesday. According to the median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of economists, January non-farm payrolls may have increased by 69,000. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4%, slightly below the four-year high of 4.5% touched last November. Beyond the regular monthly non-farm payroll and unemployment figures, the January employment report due this Wednesday will also include closely watched revisions to employment data. Preliminary estimates previously suggested that employment figures for the year ending March 2025 could be revised downward by 911,000, a record adjustment, implying a significant downward revision to the hiring pace. U.S. National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that lower employment data should not cause panic and might indicate figures below expectations. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, while gold continued to recover from its earlier decline.
On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Gulf region persist. U.S.-Iran negotiations in Oman failed to yield effective consensus, and the possibility of conflict between the two countries remains. The selling wave in precious metals is nearing its end, but the market still faces some upward pressure. The recurring nature of geopolitical tensions may increase the difficulty of predicting market trends. Caution is advised in trading ahead of the holiday period, with recommendations to maintain light positions.
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