Traders on the prediction trading platform Kalshi indicate that Elon Musk's probability of winning his lawsuit against OpenAI is only about 36%, marking the lowest expectation since the trial began a week ago in Oakland, California.
The billionaire filed a lawsuit in 2024 against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman, accusing them of breaching an agreement by failing to maintain the company's non-profit nature.
On Thursday, OpenAI's attorneys cross-examined Musk, questioning him about Microsoft's profit cap on its investment in OpenAI, whether Musk participated in negotiations about the company's structure, and if he was aware of recent actions by OpenAI's non-profit entity. Musk responded that he was not familiar with OpenAI's recent internal developments.
Last week, market predictions had placed Musk's chances of winning as high as nearly 60%, but by Friday afternoon, that figure had plummeted to around 50%.
Court documents disclosed on Sunday revealed that Musk sent a text message to Brockman several days before the trial began, expressing an interest in settling the case.
Musk donated approximately $38 million to the artificial intelligence company, alleging that these funds were improperly used for unauthorized commercial purposes.
Musk and Altman were once close friends and co-founded OpenAI in 2015 with the original intention of benefiting all of humanity, free from profit-driven constraints.
Following a capital restructuring in October of last year, OpenAI continues to be controlled by its non-profit entity, which oversees its for-profit operations. After Musk left the company's board in 2018, OpenAI established a for-profit subsidiary.
Comments