On June 15th, COMEX gold opened higher and traded within a range, settling at $4336.2 per ounce, marking a decline of 0.36%. Domestically, the SHFE gold night session opened higher before experiencing a slight pullback, closing at 942.90 yuan per gram, representing a gain of 1.77%.
Regarding geopolitical developments, the announcement of a "completed" U.S.-Iran agreement and the impending signing of a peace accord have provided some support. However, a clear divergence remains between the two sides on the issue of strait passage fees. The U.S. has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain "open for the long term with no tolls," while Iranian media reports indicate Iran has only agreed to a 60-day free period, after which it plans to charge fees for security guarantees and navigation services. A cooling in geopolitical tensions may continue to underpin gold prices. On the central bank front, market attention is focused on the Bank of Japan's policy meeting today. The prevailing market expectation is for a 25-basis-point rate hike, and the anticipation of liquidity tightening could trigger volatility across financial markets.
The breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations is a key development, with subsequent focus on navigation issues in the Strait of Hormuz. For gold, as oil prices decline and inflation expectations recede, central bank policies may become less aggressively hawkish, which is a relatively optimistic factor. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting is scheduled for this week. As Chair Wash's debut, market focus will be on adjustments to the dot plot and the new chair's commentary. While this may cause some pre- and post-meeting volatility in the gold market, given that much has likely been priced in beforehand, the outlook is not necessarily pessimistic. Overall, the near-term focus will be on whether gold prices can sustain their rebound, thereby injecting more confidence into the market.
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