Where the conflict stands
Iran's parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, publicly slammed US President Donald Trump's approach to Tehran as "theatre diplomacy" on Thursday. The accusation comes as Washington and Tehran remain locked in a diplomatic stalemate, each offering contradictory accounts of their bilateral contacts aimed at ending months of hostilities.
Trump recently claimed he had cancelled a planned strike on Iran and stated that both sides had reached a consensus on the outlines of a potential agreement. Iranian officials swiftly and categorically denied this, insisting that no negotiations are currently underway. Mocking the situation, Ghalibaf posted on social media: "'A massive attack is coming... wait, never mind, they want to negotiate.' This is 'theatre diplomacy' on an infinite loop."
In response to rumours that US military ammunition stockpiles had been depleted due to the conflict in the Middle East, Trump issued a strong denial on Thursday. He asserted that "the United States has a massive amount of 'ammunition,' especially certain types," and warned of lengthy prison sentences for anyone leaking classified information. However, according to CNN, Trump privately acknowledged in the Oval Office that supplies of some specific munitions were tightening, though he insisted that stocks of low-tech weaponry were virtually inexhaustible.
Conflict spillover threatens global shipping arteries
As the US-Iran diplomatic standoff continues, the military conflict in the Middle East is rapidly spreading to Gulf energy infrastructure and critical global shipping chokepoints. A Saudi official told CNN that the kingdom is on high alert, bracing for potential "multi-pronged, simultaneous attacks" from Iraqi militia groups and Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Intelligence gathered by Saudi Arabia and other regional governments indicates that these militant groups, operating under the direction of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are planning a substantial strike on Saudi Arabia "in the very near future."
This warning came a day after the Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on two Saudi oil tankers in the Gulf of Aden. The attack on this vital waterway, which connects the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, has further amplified global supply chain risks. In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia has faced repeated missile attacks from the Houthis and drone strikes from Iran-backed Iraqi militias. The deteriorating security situation has led to a dramatic plunge in the number of commercial vessels transiting two of the Middle East's core strategic waterways.
Data from global commodity tracker Kpler shows that only two ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, a sharp drop from eight on Tuesday and far below the pre-conflict daily average of 130 to 140. Meanwhile, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait plummeted from 20 vessels the previous day to just a single dry bulk carrier.
New regulations threaten to roil global oil markets
Iran and Oman are reportedly drafting a plan to manage shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency on Thursday. The draft proposal explicitly bans US and Israeli vessels from entering the waterway. The ban would also apply to any other country deemed to have "caused damage" to Iran, until it pays compensation. Fars News Agency also revealed that the plan includes fines of up to 20% of a vessel's cargo value for violating the terms. The agreement is currently under review.
Regional officials had previously indicated that Iran and Oman were close to finalising a comprehensive framework agreement for the strait. The framework reportedly covers inbound traffic passing through Iranian territorial waters and plans for outbound routes closer to Oman. However, even if a traffic management agreement is reached, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels in the short term, and the waterway will not simply reopen automatically.
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