Solar energy is the only reliable power source for commercial space operations, with light intensity approximately 5-10 times greater than that of ground-based photovoltaics, leading to a manifold increase in electricity generation. Currently, overseas companies like SpaceX possess cost advantages in areas such as rocket launches, which has spurred the development of commercial applications like low-Earth orbit satellite internet. Future business models, including space data centers, are expected to be vigorously developed. Domestic manufacturers, leveraging their cost and technological advantages in crystalline silicon and perovskite technologies, are poised to play a crucial role in the energy supply for these space data centers.
The primary development opportunity currently lies with gallium arsenide as the mainstream energy solution for space. However, the cost and efficiency of crystalline silicon and perovskite technologies are continuously improving, whereas the potential for enhancing the cost-effectiveness of gallium arsenide is relatively limited. The future demand potential for space data centers is substantial. Given the cost and supply constraints associated with gallium arsenide, companies have begun exploring the use of crystalline silicon and perovskite tandem solutions, with some crystalline silicon firms having already commenced successful shipments.
From a technological standpoint, if commercial scenarios like space data centers are to be developed, economic viability will become a critical factor. Perovskite and crystalline silicon, with their superior cost advantages, have a significant opportunity to succeed. According to a Starcloud white paper, energy cost is the largest variable expense for a space data center. Based on internal calculations, the supply chain for crystalline silicon modules is the most mature, offering distinct advantages in manufacturing costs. Meanwhile, perovskite modules, due to their superior mass-specific power, can substantially reduce launch costs.
Regarding market prospects, Elon Musk has stated an ambition to deploy 100GW of AI computing power in space annually. Should this target be realized, satellite demand would experience explosive growth. Assuming perovskite tandem cell efficiency reaches 30% and a satellite's solar array area reaches 350 square meters—and considering the higher AM0 irradiation intensity compared to Earth, applying a multiplier—achieving Musk's annual deployment goal of 100GW for space data centers would generate an incremental demand of approximately 680,000 satellites per year. This is a massive increase compared to the current global satellite inventory of just over 10,000, indicating enormous potential elasticity driven by space-based computing.
Potential risks include slower-than-expected industry development; changes in technological pathways; policy risks; fluctuations in raw material prices; and potential errors in the underlying assumptions of the calculations.
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