According to Woofun AI, Morgan Creek Capital founder Mark Yusko clearly defined on the "New Era Finance" podcast that BTC's long-term fair valuation anchor is $105,000, and emphasized that the market has officially shifted from a seller-dominated distribution phase to an accumulation model of gradually rising highs and lows.
From the perspective of technical patterns and cyclical rules, the double-bottom structure formed near $60,000 earlier this year, accompanied by continuously expanding trading volume, marks a substantial dissipation of selling pressure.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that based on the experience of the past three cycles, the duration of BTC bear markets from high to low strictly follows the block count pattern of 364 days, rather than calendar years.
Based on this inference, early October is highly likely to constitute the final low of this cycle, after which the market will experience a limited-magnitude pullback, with prices touching near $70,000 before rebounding again.
Yusko applied Metcalfe's Law to measure BTC's value based on network user base and connection density, currently giving a fair range of approximately $105,000, and expects that as adoption increases, the annualized return rate will stabilize at 7% to 8%.
It is worth noting that in October last year, he assessed fair value at $85,000 to $90,000, while BTC's actual high at that time had already surged to $125,000. This deviation was attributed by him to irrational exuberance driven by human psychology.
He judges that over the next year and a half, prices will slowly return to fair value, until the 2029 halving event triggers a new round of cyclical surges.
At the macro level, Yusko directly linked BTC's four-year halving cycle to the profitability pressure caused by miners' revenue being halved, and divided investor groups accordingly.
He pointed out that as asset scale expands, exponential growth is mathematically no longer feasible, but BTC's market cap is expected to climb to $15 trillion within the next five to ten years, a volume equivalent to half of his estimated total gold market cap of $30 trillion.
The core variable supporting this bullish logic lies in currency debasement: the United States accumulated $10 trillion in debt over the first 245 years since its founding, while in the most recent five years alone it added an equivalent $10 trillion in new debt.
Against this backdrop, BTC, with its fixed supply characteristics, like gold, has become an inflation-hedging tool that can exist without bearing liabilities.
Yusko's personal holding strategy also confirms this logic. He holds STRC (STRC.US) preferred shares of Strategy (MSTR.US), using its 12% high yield to cover daily expenses, while positioning BTC and gold as long-term value storage vehicles spanning a dimension of decades.
Additionally, Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) may also be a related asset to watch in this context.
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