Benjamin Cowen has publicly conceded that his bearish Bitcoin forecast was wrong, admitting "I deserve the criticism" in a post on X. Strategy (MSTR) Executive Chairman Michael Saylor quickly replied with a playful "Welcome back, ₿ack," underscoring a dramatic shift in market sentiment from cyclical downturn theories to a decisive price breakout narrative.
Cowen had maintained a persistently bearish stance based on his cyclical analysis through Into The Cryptoverse. On September 8, he predicted a 65% probability of a cycle low still forming, with a target price of $53,000, and had even projected in a July report that October's fourth quarter could see Bitcoin drop to $44,000. Even as the asset rebounded to $70,000, he continued to flag risks, citing pullback patterns following the "golden cross" signals seen in 2014 and 2015.
It wasn't until September 20, when rising yields, energy prices, and a stronger US dollar failed to exert the anticipated downward pressure, that Cowen finally acknowledged the rally had persisted far longer than expected. Data indicates that this divergence between macroeconomic variables and actual price performance was the core catalyst driving his eventual revision of the outlook.
Glassnode reports that Bitcoin's price has touched $86,000, representing a gain of over 10% from last Sunday's close. Spot and perpetual futures buying are dominating the market action, while ETF fund flows remain comparatively lagging. Over the preceding months, short positions had accumulated heavily in the $82,000 to $86,000 range, and the price breakout directly triggered a cascade of forced liquidations among bears.
The options market shows a rising put/call ratio, but it remains far from the extreme levels seen at historical highs. Perpetual futures funding rates are holding at neutral-to-negative levels, indicating that speculative overheating has not yet spiraled out of control.
On Monday, Bitcoin surged 5.5% in a single day, decisively breaking above the descending triangle pattern that had capped the market since September 15, with highs approaching $82,000. The RSI indicator has spiked to 72.71, marking its highest level since the peak in early September, signaling strong momentum but also entry into overbought territory.
This marks a key confirmation of the trend reversal on the technical charts following the adjustment in macroeconomic expectations, with short-term bullish sentiment rapidly taking command of the market.
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