In the recently disclosed fourth-quarter fund reports, fixed-income plus fund manager Cheng Yao wrote: Looking ahead to the first quarter, after the market digested the volatility of the fourth quarter last year, with the stable appreciation of the RMB and the continuous influx of incremental funds such as A500 and insurance capital, the spring rally is worth anticipating. The portfolio will increase equity positions to actively capture the spring market opportunities. In terms of sectors, we remain optimistic about industries with potential price improvements, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy. In the bond market, the mild implementation of the new redemption fee regulations has gradually faded in its impact on the market. Although the supply of ultra-long-term bonds has increased at the beginning of the year, considering the government's financing costs, the central bank is expected to ease the upward pressure on interest rates through liquidity injections. We are optimistic about trading opportunities after interest rate adjustments, but the room for gains is unlikely to break through last year's lows.
The stock market is more bullish, while the bond market is slightly cautious. A detailed analysis shows that fund manager Cheng Yao is relatively optimistic about the stock market in the next phase, which can be summarized into three points: 1. Solid market foundation: The volatility and digestion in the fourth quarter of 2025 have released pressures such as early valuation divergences and profit-taking, clearing short-term obstacles for the first-quarter market rally. 2. Dual benefits from capital and exchange rates: The stable appreciation of the RMB will attract inflows of northbound funds, coupled with the entry of CSI A500-related funds and the continuous deployment of incremental insurance capital, forming a pattern of "multiple incremental funds entering the market" in A-shares, which will become the core driver of the market's rise. 3. Clear logic for sector optimism: The focus on non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy is primarily due to the foundation for price improvements in these industries. Non-ferrous metals benefit from rising prices driven by emerging demands such as new energy and AI computing power. The chemical sector has shown a recovery trend at the beginning of the year, characterized by "stock market leading, spot and futures resonating." New energy has achieved fundamental improvements based on industrial demand and price recovery. All three sectors exhibit characteristics of pro-cyclical recovery or sustained high景气.
As for the fixed-income market, Cheng Yao is not entirely bullish on bonds but is optimistic about structural trading opportunities after interest rate adjustments, while also noting limited upside potential. The main reasons are: 1. Short-term negatives gradually fading: After the implementation of the new redemption fee regulations in the bond market, the market has already digested the impact, and the shock from related policies on capital conditions and trading sentiment has largely subsided, allowing the bond market to return to normal trading logic. 2. Central bank liquidity injections will ease upward pressure on interest rates: Although the increased supply of ultra-long-term bonds at the beginning of the year will create some upward pressure on interest rates in the bond market, considering the need for government financing cost control, this is expected to effectively counter the supply pressure and prevent sustained interest rate increases. 3. Clear ceiling on upside potential: Although liquidity support brings trading opportunities after interest rate adjustments, the bond market's room for gains is unlikely to break through the 2025 lows, and the配置 and trading demand for bonds cannot support an unexpectedly strong unilateral上涨行情.
A more bullish stance on stocks and a slightly cautious view on bonds mean that Cheng Yao will not remain passive in fixed-income positions in the new year's product management but will actively seek structural opportunities in the equity market. In the management of fixed-income plus products, efforts will also be made to enhance returns through coupon income and波段 trading, striving to build a solid base return for the portfolio. At the same time, her judgment on the bond market avoids the risk of过度博弈 on trend-following行情.
Aligning actions with beliefs to enhance returns. Looking at other fixed-income plus products managed by Cheng Yao, her philosophy is indeed reflected. In the lackluster bond market of 2025, the Guotai Tongli 9-month holding fund managed by Cheng Yao achieved a return of 8.65%, while the secondary bond fund Guotai Min'an Zengli yielded 6.9%. Historical performance indicates that Cheng Yao has successfully achieved enhanced returns by participating in the equity market. From the perspective of drawdown experience, a key concern in fixed-income investment, the performance of Cheng Yao's managed products is also outstanding. As of the end of last year, taking Guotai Min'an Zengli A as an example, the maximum drawdown over the past year was -1.53%, significantly better than the average maximum drawdown of -2.57% for similar funds (similar funds being Wind mixed bond secondary funds).
Performance of Guotai Min'an Zengli in 2025.
Data source: Wind, period from 2025/1/1 to 2025/12/31. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is partly due to Cheng Yao's refined management and partly related to the inherent quality of secondary bond funds themselves. As an important branch of bond funds, secondary bond funds strictly use bonds as the foundation, supplemented by equity positions of less than 20% to increase flexibility. Historical data shows that such products can indeed withstand declines and keep up with rises, exhibiting characteristics of "resistance to bear markets and participation in bull markets."
Data source: Fund periodic reports, Wind, index performance as of 2025/12/31. The operation history of Chinese funds and indices is relatively short. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Funds carry risks, investment requires caution. When the CSI 300 falls, the secondary bond index declines less. Even in 2021, when the CSI 300 fell (down 11.38%), the secondary bond index rose (up 0.57%). When the CSI 300 rises, the secondary bond index generally follows suit. The advantages of combining equity and bond characteristics make secondary bond funds particularly suitable for the current market with some divergence.
New fund issuance, balancing offense and defense. Recently, the Guotai Dingli Bond型 Securities Investment Fund (Class A: 025966, Class C: 025967), managed by Cheng Yao, is being issued. Similar to Guotai Min'an Zengli, Guotai Dingli Bond is a typical secondary bond fund. The core strategy of the product is clearly divided into two layers: a stable base position +弹性增强. The base position primarily consists of bond assets, selecting high-grade credit bonds while flexibly allocating long-duration government bonds to create base returns. It anchors basic returns and controls portfolio risk. The弹性部分 opportunistically allocates to equity assets to capture structural market opportunities, focusing on dividend/high-dividend + growth stocks. For convertible bonds, the low-price and low-premium strategy may remain effective in the long term, and attention will be paid to clause博弈 opportunities under the intention to promote conversion. The two-layer strategies operate synergistically, striving to achieve "seeking progress while maintaining stability," balancing return stability and growth potential. In this process, once the market direction changes, such fixed-income plus products can also adjust positions flexibly to help investors avoid risks. Previously, when Cheng Yao managed Guotai Min'an Zengli, she reduced losses for investors through position adjustments. In 2023, the equity market generally trended downward. Cheng Yao gradually reduced stock positions from the beginning of the year, reducing losses for holders caused by the market decline. From the beginning of 2024 to the end of the second quarter, based on a cautious judgment of the volatile equity market, the fund maintained a stock position below 10%. In late September 2024, domestic policies were集中发力, risk偏好 saw some repair, and the stock market rebounded rapidly. Cheng Yao anticipated this in advance and increased the stock position to 15%. In early 2025, influenced by domestic and international factors, the A-share market experienced volatility, and the fund's stock position was reduced to around 10%,表现整体平稳; during the second quarter, after the tariff war, the market rebounded, and the stock position was increased to around 15%.
Data source: Guotai Fund, Wind, fund periodic reports. Holding data as of: 2025/12/31. Position data comes from periodic reports and is dynamically adjusted, not representing current holdings. Cheng Yao has managed Guotai Min'an Zengli Bond since 2022/12/30. The operation history of Chinese funds is relatively short. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Entering 2026, although the equity market currently appears prosperous, risks are accumulating above 4100 points, and the possibility of adjustment arises. At this time, choosing such flexible products is quite suitable. For investors seeking assets with "offensive and defensive" attributes, it might be worthwhile to pay attention to the currently issuing Guotai Dingli Bond Fund (Class A: 025966, Class C: 025967).
All funds currently managed by fund manager Cheng Yao are as follows: Guotai Min'an Zengli A (Inception date: 2012/12/26, Fund performance benchmark: 90%*ChinaBond Composite Total Price Index Return + 8%*CSI 300 Index Return + 2%*CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Return, Cheng Yao has managed since 2022/12/30), Performance/Benchmark for 2020-2025: 4.67%/2.00, 2.29%/0.43%, -8.62%/-1.48%, 0.69%/0.69%, 5.41%/6.22%, 6.90%/0.47%. Guotai Juli (Inception date: 2018/03/27, Performance benchmark: 50%×CSI 300 Index + 50%×ChinaBond Composite Index Return, Cheng Yao has managed since 2021/07/09, Cheng Zhou has managed since 2018/03/27) Performance/Benchmark for 2020-2025: 12.00%/13.50%, 5.52%/-1.21%, -2.09%/-10.80%, 1.21%/-4.68%, 3.62%/11.73%, 2.84%/0.12%. Guotai Xinli A (Inception date: 2020/01/21, Performance benchmark: 15% CSI 300 + 5% CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect + 80% ChinaBond Composite Bond Index, Cheng Yao has managed since 2021/07/09), Performance/Benchmark for 2020-2025: 7.37%/6.14%, 9.44%/2.81%, -1.98%/-1.17%, 1.10%/1.45%, 3.57%/9.81%, 7.90%/4.54%. Guotai Tongli A (Inception date: 2021/02/05, Performance benchmark: 15% CSI 300 + 5% CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect + 80% ChinaBond Composite Bond Index, Cheng Yao has managed since 2021/07/09), Performance/Benchmark for 2021-2025: 8.55%/1.41%, -2.26%/-1.17%, 1.42%/1.45%, 3.12%/9.82%, 8.65%/4.54%. Guotai Heli A (Inception date: 2025/03/14), Performance benchmark: ChinaBond Composite Total Price Index Return *80% + CSI 300 Index Return *15% + CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Composite Index Return (adjusted for valuation exchange rate) *5%, 2025 Performance/Benchmark: 4.90%/3.10%. Data source: Product periodic reports, Wind, Guotai Fund, data as of 2025/12/31. Risk提示: Funds carry risks, investment requires caution. This fund is issued and managed by Guotai Fund. Distributors do not undertake the investment and repayment responsibilities of the product. The past performance of the fund is not indicative of its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. The fund manager promises to manage and utilize the fund assets with the principles of honesty,信用, diligence, and尽责, but does not guarantee that the fund will necessarily be profitable, nor does it guarantee a minimum return. This fund is a bond fund, theoretically expecting returns and risks higher than money market funds but lower than混合型 funds and stock funds. When this fund invests in Hong Kong Stock Connect target stocks, it will face specific risks arising from differences in the investment environment, investment targets, market systems, and trading rules under the Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism. Investing involves risks. Before making an investment decision, investors should carefully read the fund's "Prospectus" and "Fund Contract," fully consider their own risk tolerance, and invest cautiously.
MACD golden cross signals formed, these stocks are performing well!
Massive information, precise interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP.
Comments