October 28: In the previous trading day, Tuesday (October 27), international gold prices rebounded from lows and closed higher, driven by bargain-hunting buying. Iran's Supreme Leader made new remarks mentioning the end of the war, which pressured oil prices lower, eased inflation concerns, and potentially softened the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.
In the short term, gold's bullish momentum has strengthened somewhat, but it faces pressure from the previous adjustment range and the upward trendline overhead. A pullback risk exists upon touching these levels, and there is still an expectation of probing down toward the $3,880 area. If this week gold returns above $4,120 and holds steady on the close, it could extend the rebound toward the $4,300 or $4,400 area.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened in the Asian session at $4,018.38 per ounce, initially consolidating, then declined during the midday session, reaching an intraday low of $3,988.94 in the early European session. It then rebounded from the bottom, extending gains into the 23:00 US session where it recorded an intraday high of $4,065.31. It ultimately held steady in narrow sideways consolidation and closed at $4,060.07, with a daily range of $76.37, gaining $41.69 or 1.04%.
Looking ahead to today, Wednesday (October 28): International gold opened with narrow fluctuations. The dollar index's continuous strengthening and the bottoming consolidation of US Treasury yields are placing some restraint on gold's bullish momentum. Additionally, yesterday's rebound has generated profit-taking demand. Exit polls showed that neither of the two major blocs in Israel's parliament secured a majority of seats, leaving Middle East geopolitical risks unresolved. Early session oil prices strengthened first, remaining overall at high levels and within the recent rebound trend. This keeps the probability of a December rate hike high, further limiting gold's upside.
Furthermore, this week's key focus will be the Fed decision in the early hours of Thursday. The general expectation is that rates will remain unchanged, but the probability of a December hike remains high. Moreover, Thursday's US session PCE data is expected to rise, which would be bearish for gold. Combined with the current dollar strength and high interest rate environment creating pressure, short-term factors are mixed. Gold's rebound remains constrained. Therefore, during the week, attention should be paid to the risk of gold encountering resistance and pulling back near the upward trendline resistance.
On the weekly chart level, gold has currently fallen into the upward trend channel that began in 2024. Although it is currently supported by the previous rebound and the ZZ indicator shows a bottoming rebound demand, if it cannot return above the trend channel at $4,120, there remains an expectation of a lower low, with the channel bottom support near $3,830 potentially being targeted before a bullish rally back above $4,100.
On the daily chart level, gold has currently stopped falling and is rebounding consecutively, but it remains below the support that was broken last week, with pressure still holding the advantage. If the rebound cannot return into the previous adjustment range and above the upward trendline, there remains a risk of falling lower. On the upside, watch the 10-day moving average and the Bollinger Band middle rail resistance for bearish positioning. On the downside, watch the 5-day moving average and the Bollinger Band lower rail support for bullish positioning.
Below are preliminary intraday support and resistance levels for reference. Specific entry and exit points are subject to live trading notifications:
Gold: Downside support near $4,030 or $4,010; upside resistance near $4,065 or $4,090.
Silver: Downside support near $53.90 or $53.15; upside resistance near $54.80 or $55.70.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on this information do so at their own risk.
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