Since 2025, the global semiconductor industry has entered a new upcycle, characterized by a computing power boom driven by artificial intelligence on one side, and a mild recovery in AI-enabled consumer electronics on the other. Valuation data for the top twenty semiconductor companies in the Hong Kong, US, and A-share markets as of March 5, 2026, reveals distinctly different pricing logics across the three markets.
I. Hong Kong as a "Testing Ground" for Semiconductor Localization, with Capital Flowing to Recent Listings The combined market capitalization of the top twenty semiconductor companies in Hong Kong is HKD 1.63 trillion, a figure equivalent to just a fraction of Nvidia's value. However, the valuation characteristics are highly dramatic. SMIC (0981.HK), as the sector leader with a market cap of HKD 492 billion, trades at a PE ratio of 92.29x, significantly higher than TSMC's 33.66x in the US market. This pricing is not based on profitability comparable to TSMC, but rather on the scarcity value associated with China's localization efforts amid geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs recently maintained its target price for SMIC at HKD 134, citing domestic demand and AI-driven opportunities. More extreme examples are found in the "AI unicorn" cluster. Companies like Biren Technology (6082.HK) and Tianshu Zhixin (9903.HK) are currently loss-making, yet command astonishingly high PS ratios of 202.19x and 94.39x, respectively. This reflects the appeal of Hong Kong as a listing venue for "Specialist Technology Companies," where the market temporarily anchors the future of firms with core technologies (like GPU architecture) but no current profits using the price-to-sales ratio. Overall, traditional packaging and testing firms like ASMPT (0522.HK) trade at a PS ratio of just 3.42x, showing a clear discount compared to international peers. Meanwhile, southbound capital and industrial investors are enthusiastically chasing domestic AI chips, leading to extreme valuation dispersion within the sector. After excluding outliers, the overall Hong Kong market PE is 59.08x, PS is 19.08x, and PB is 5.47x. Newly listed semiconductor companies in 2026 have collectively attracted significant capital. GigaDevice, Tianshu Zhixin, Biren Technology, and Montage Technology, all listed in early 2026, immediately gained high liquidity post-IPO. The combined average daily turnover for these four stocks is nearly HKD 2 billion, and their year-to-date gains all exceed 60%, with GigaDevice rising 130.62% driven by the memory cycle. In contrast, SMIC's average daily turnover shrank by 28.33% in 2026, and its stock price fell 13.93%, indicating that despite the domestic substitution narrative, this mature company faces capital diversion pressure amid slightly waning market enthusiasm and the siphon effect of new listings.
II. US Market's "Value Digestion Phase" for Giant Oligopolies, with Rapid Rotation from High to Low Valuation Based on valuation data, the top twenty US semiconductor companies have a combined market capitalization of USD 11.05 trillion, exhibiting a significant "top-heavy" concentration. Nvidia (NVDA.O) leads with a staggering market cap of USD 4.45 trillion, trading at a PE of 37.11x and a PS of 20.63x. For a company maintaining rapid revenue growth in 2025, this valuation level does not indicate extreme frothiness but rather reflects market confidence in its ability to grow into its valuation. Notably, Intel (INTC.O) and Microchip Technology (MCHP.O) have negative P/E ratios (-859.63x and -237.66x), reflecting the transition pains for traditional IDM firms in recent years. Arm, with a PE of 159.92x and PS of 27.42x, ranks near the top, showing high market expectations for the penetration of its architecture in AI PCs and cloud computing. The pricing logic in the US market is clear: global leaders like Nvidia and TSMC are generally awarded "reasonably high" valuations because they are capturing most of the industry's incremental profits. For companies with disruptive potential like Arm, the market is willing to pay a high premium. Excluding outliers, the overall US market PE is 38.13x, PS is 12.33x, and PB is 13.05x, reflecting global capital's pricing of the profit certainty of mature giants. The US semiconductor sector shows fund flow characteristics starkly different from Hong Kong and A-shares. Trading volume growth for top giants is weak or even shrinking, while second-tier leaders and cyclical recovery plays are highly sought after. Expectations of a memory cycle reversal ignited trading activity; Micron Technology's average daily turnover surged 213.86% in 2026, with its stock price rising 39.12% year-to-date, leading US semiconductor gains. This confirms the market consensus on a super-cycle for memory chips, with capital anticipating the upcycle in DRAM, NAND, and HBM prices. Equipment stocks remain popular; giants like Teradyne (test equipment), Applied Materials, and Lam Research saw turnover growth of 70%-90% and price gains of 25%-35%, indicating that AI-related capital expenditure is flowing towards the equipment sector. AI giants are experiencing "aesthetic fatigue"; Nvidia and Broadcom saw only single-digit turnover growth with minimal price changes; AMD's turnover shrank 15% with a 7% price drop; while Qualcomm saw slight turnover growth, its price fell nearly 20%. This suggests that after two years of significant gains, marginal enthusiasm for AI computing giants is cooling, and capital is beginning to seek "better value" catch-up opportunities.
III. A-Share Market's Policy-Driven "Self-Sufficiency" Narrative, with IP and Memory Leading Gains The top twenty A-share semiconductor companies have a combined market capitalization of RMB 4.51 trillion, showing a distinct "pyramid" valuation structure heavily influenced by policy drivers. Cambricon-U (688256.SH), with a PE of 239.18x and PS of 75.81x, serves as a valuation bellwether. Despite continuous losses, its market cap reaches RMB 492.5 billion, underpinned by strong expectations for domestic computing self-sufficiency. Similarly, newly listed GPU firms like Moore Threads-U and MetaX Technologies-U have negative P/Es but very high PS ratios of 181x and 130x, mirroring the logic seen with Biren in Hong Kong. Against the backdrop of international technology restrictions, the potential market size for domestic AI chips is being magnified significantly. The two A-share wafer fabrication leaders show extreme multiples: SMIC (688981.SH) has a PE of 169.69x, while Hua Hong Company (688347.SH) has an exceptionally high PE of 3744.27x, primarily due to very thin short-term profits. This is not indicative of a valuation bubble but reflects a temporary mismatch between market expectations for capacity expansion and profit realization benefits from equipment and material localization. Donghai Securities notes that the domestic substitution process is expected to accelerate under pressure, explaining why equipment companies like Naura Technology Group and AMEC generally command high PS and PE ratios. Excluding outliers, the overall A-share market PE is 46.39x, PS is 24.12x, and PB is 15.85x. Regarding trading activity, turnover in the A-share semiconductor sector generally expanded, but gains were not broad-based, instead concentrating around the core themes of "equipment/materials/computing power." Unlike Hong Kong, liquidity growth in A-shares was more balanced, but performance divergence was equally notable. Turnover increased across the board, but directions varied. Except for a few leaders like SMIC, Cambricon, and OmniVision, the vast majority of A-share semiconductor stocks saw significant turnover growth. Companies like BIWIN Storage, JCET Group, and VeriSilicon Microelectronics saw turnover more than double, indicating incremental capital is flowing into the sector. VeriSilicon Microelectronics (chip IP) saw a 91% turnover increase and a 76% price gain; BIWIN Storage (storage modules) saw a 138% turnover increase and a 67% price gain; JCET Group (packaging and testing) saw a 105% turnover increase and a 32% price gain. The common thread among these outperformers is direct benefit from domestic substitution and AI hardware implementation. In contrast, SMIC's turnover shrank 16% with a 13% price drop, and Cambricon's turnover fell 6% with a 14% price decline. The former's trend echoes that of its Hong Kong-listed counterpart, suggesting that large-cap leaders are becoming sources of capital outflow in a market focused on existing holdings, with funds preferring to seek opportunities in "more flexible sub-sectors."
In summary, comparing the three markets reveals distinct patterns: Hong Kong is the most extreme, where limited total liquidity leads to concentrated attacks on newly listed AI unicorns, while established leaders see limited volume expansion and significant pullbacks. The A-share market is the most balanced, with the self-sufficiency theme covering a wider range, benefiting equipment, materials, IP, and packaging & testing sectors. The US market is the most mature, where capital flows are more based on industry cycles and valuation comparisons, manifesting as a rotation from high-valuation AI designers to lower-valuation equipment and memory plays.
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