The baijiu industry faced a severe downturn in 2025.
Last year, the combined operating revenue of 19 listed baijiu companies totaled 361.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.13% year-over-year. Their combined net profit attributable to shareholders was 126.632 billion yuan, a decline of 24.1%.
In this industry-wide adjustment, no company was immune. Revenue declined for 18 of the listed baijiu firms last year, with Shanxi Fenjiu being the only one to post growth. Net profit fell for 17 companies, with only Jinzhongzi Liquor and Shanxi Fenjiu recording increases. The downward trend continued for the vast majority of these companies into the first quarter of this year.
A primary reason for this phenomenon is the exhaustion of the previous growth model, which relied on pushing inventory onto distributors to maintain prosperity. In June 2025, a joint report by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association and KPMG, titled "2025 China Baijiu Market Mid-Year Research Report," stated, "Distributors are generally facing inventory pressure, with some experiencing extended inventory cycles and widespread market price inversions. This has made it difficult for distributors to manage cash flow, leading them to become more cautious about subsequent purchases."
Since 2024, baijiu companies have been adjusting prices to cope with inventory pressure. In 2025, leading companies frequently implemented measures to control supply and stabilize prices.
Weak terminal consumption, slowing market sales, and reduced willingness among distributors to make payments have created a negative feedback loop. When will the baijiu industry reach an inflection point?
**Revenue of 19 Listed Baijiu Companies Drops 18.13%**
In 2025, the 19 listed baijiu companies collectively achieved operating revenue of 361.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 80.132 billion yuan, or 18.13%, compared to the previous year.
Kweichow Moutai ranked first with revenue of 172.054 billion yuan, followed by Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd., Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co.,Ltd.. The top five ranking order remained consistent with 2024, but their performance varied significantly. Shanxi Fenjiu, with a revenue growth rate of 7.52%, was the only company to achieve positive revenue growth last year. Kweichow Moutai's revenue declined by 1.2%, the smallest drop. Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. saw its overall revenue plummet by 54.55%, ranking last.
**Industry Concentration Continues to Rise, Top Five Exceed 80% Share**
In 2025, the concentration of the baijiu industry accelerated. Data shows that the combined revenue of the top five companies (Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd., Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co.,Ltd.) reached 296.243 billion yuan, accounting for 81.88% of the industry's total revenue, a further increase from 2024.
The rise in industry concentration stems from two main factors. On one hand, leading companies, with their advantages in brand, channels, and capital, demonstrate greater resilience during the industry's adjustment period. Regional small and medium-sized baijiu producers are being squeezed by these leaders, facing greater survival pressure. On the other hand, in this round of adjustment, the sub-high-end price segment has been hit harder, while premium and mass-market products have shown a degree of resilience.
**Wuliangye and Yanghe's Performance Declines Exceed Expectations**
Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. experienced a significant setback in its 2025 performance, primarily due to a "correction of accounting errors" for the year. After the correction, its revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was reduced from the originally reported 60.945 billion yuan to 30.638 billion yuan, and net profit fell from 21.511 billion yuan to 6.475 billion yuan. The company stated that "declining consumer demand and intensified market competition had a significant impact on current-period revenue."
Market analysts suggest that Wuliangye made accounting adjustments to reverse the recognition of sales and revenue for some goods that were previously considered sold, thereby reducing reported revenue. This move reflects the company's urgency, following a management change, to "squeeze out the水分" (remove inflated figures) from previous sales practices. It further indicates that the baijiu industry's path to growth through channel inventory loading may have reached its end.
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co.,Ltd. also faces significant operational pressure. In 2025, it achieved revenue of 19.211 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 33.47%, and a net profit of 2.206 billion yuan, a plunge of 66.94%. The company encountered obstacles in its product structure upgrade, with slowing sales of its mid-to-high-end products being the main drag on performance.
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