On Tuesday, July 7th, spot gold prices continued to decline despite a backdrop of escalating risk events. The core contradiction lies in the fact that shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, transmitted through oil prices and inflation expectations, have heightened the market's sensitivity to the interest rate path once again. Spot gold is currently trading near $4,130 per ounce, with an intraday decline of approximately 0.8%.
Superficially, the attack on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz should have strengthened safe-haven buying. However, the gold market did not exhibit a unilateral upward surge; instead, it experienced a second day of decline. This indicates that the dominant variable in current gold trading is not simply geopolitical risk, but the secondary transmission of such risks to energy prices, inflation expectations, bond yields, and the U.S. dollar index.
Looking at the daily chart, the K-line shows insufficient sustainability above the $4,200 region. MACD data shows the DIF at -80.21 and the DEA at -100.93, with the histogram turning positive to 41.44. This suggests that downward momentum has already weakened, but the trend indicator remains in negative territory. This structure typically represents a weakening of bearish momentum, not a restoration of a bullish trend. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving towards the neutral level of 50, its overall trajectory still leans bearish. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD has already formed a bearish crossover at a high level (the red bars are shortening or turning green, with the fast line crossing below the slow line). Bearish forces are beginning to emerge. The 14-day RSI is around 54, indicating a state of wide-range consolidation in the short term. Overall, for tonight's gold trading, the recommendation is to focus on selling on rallies.
Evening Gold Trading Strategy:
Sell Strategy: Consider selling near the 4138-4140 range, with a stop-loss at 4162, targeting levels near 4100 and 4071.
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