Spot Gold:
On June 24th, the fundamental backdrop: During the European session on Wednesday, spot gold staged a minor rebound from a near two-week low but remained below the $4,100 threshold, with the overall negative bias unchanged. Although recent declines in oil prices have alleviated some inflation worries, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike within the year have continued to strengthen. This has propelled the US dollar index to its highest level since May 2025, exerting sustained pressure on the non-yielding asset gold. Concurrently, contradictory statements from the US and Iran regarding the nuclear issue are maintaining a geopolitical risk premium, supporting safe-haven demand for the dollar. The short-term downside risks for gold have not yet been eliminated.
Technical Perspective: International spot gold closed at $4,066.39 per ounce. On the daily chart, it has recorded seven consecutive negative closes, having fallen over $280 from above $4,350. This indicates significant short-term, deep oversold characteristics. The RSI indicator has retreated to around 27, entering a severely oversold zone, while the MACD's bearish green bars continue to expand significantly, showing that downward momentum is still being released in a concentrated manner. The key psychological $4,100 level has been effectively breached. The strong annual support level around $4,000 has now become the core focal point for the battle between bulls and bears. This level marks the starting point of the rally from December 2025 and is expected to attract strong, long-term, allocation-based buying interest, making an immediate breakdown and further decline in the short term highly unlikely. For the evening session, key focus will be on resistance around $4,100 to $4,136 and support around $4,050 to $4,010.
Evening Trading Suggestions for Gold:
Personal recommendation: Consider long positions on a pullback to the $4,010 to $4,055 range, and consider short positions on a rebound to the $4,127 to $4,137 range. Set a stop-loss of $10 for each, with targets of $20 to $50.
[GOLD Pivot Level: $4,120 per ounce! The above views are for reference only; diversify positions appropriately and strictly control risk!]
WTI Crude Oil:
Fundamental backdrop: On Wednesday during the Asian session, multiple bearish factors weighed on prices, with US crude oil maintaining a downward trajectory. The easing of tensions in the Middle East, the gradual resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and a temporary exemption for Iranian petroleum product exports have significantly alleviated investor concerns about supply. International crude oil prices have continued their corrective decline, touching near four-month lows. Against this short-term bearish fundamental backdrop, the oil market continues to face downward pressure. Future focus will be on the progress of the strait's transportation recovery.
Technical Perspective: With the US dollar remaining strong, the supply environment improving, and geopolitical risk premiums declining, international oil prices are trending weaker, currently falling to the key support zone around $72. Technically, on the daily chart, the moving average system shows a bearish alignment, with prices continuing to operate within a descending channel. On the 4-hour chart, after consecutive declines, the price is showing signs of sideways consolidation. Short-term bearish momentum appears to be marginally weakening, but the market's rebound power is relatively weak and has not formed effective trend-reversal momentum. Today's price action is expected to continue downward, potentially setting new lows. Caution is advised in trading for the day. For the evening session, key focus will be on resistance around $72.5 to $73.2 and support around $71.0 to $70.0.
Evening Trading Suggestions for Crude Oil:
Personal recommendation: Consider long positions on a pullback to the $70.0 to $71.2 range, and consider short positions on a rebound to the $72.4 to $73.0 range. Set a stop-loss of 1.0 point for each, with a target of 3.0 points per barrel.
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