Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (02714) fell more than 4% in afternoon trading. As of the time of writing, the stock was down 3.8%, trading at HK$45.6 with a turnover of HK$123 million. The decline follows a continuous drop in hog prices since the Lunar New Year. By March 13, the national average hog price had fallen to RMB 10.09 per kilogram, the lowest level since January 2019. Prices in regions such as Guangxi and the three northeastern provinces have already dropped below the RMB 10 per kilogram mark. In March, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture jointly convened a meeting with leading hog farming companies to discuss coordinated agricultural support and comprehensive regulation of hog production capacity. Huatai Securities analysts noted that as industry cash flow continues to deplete, capacity reduction is expected to accelerate further. Reflecting on the 2023 hog cycle, stock prices in the sector typically begin to rise during two key phases: when hog prices fall sharply and when piglet prices decline rapidly after hog farming losses. In the current early stage of capacity reduction, an unexpected drop in hog prices serves as a significant catalyst, especially given the sector's currently low valuation.
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