Data collected over the past 24 hours by Sina Finance's "Liquor Price Insider" indicates that the average terminal retail price for major Chinese baijiu products experienced a slight overall decline on April 19th. If one bottle of each major product were bundled for sale, the total price today would be 9,867 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, bringing it back to the lower range observed over the past month. The market weakened again after a rebound yesterday, with terminal trading sentiment remaining cautious.
Among the 11 major baijiu products tracked today, three saw price increases, five decreased, and three remained flat, indicating a dominant trend of price declines and a return to a fragmented and consolidating pattern in terminal prices. On the upside, Luzhou Laojiao 1573 and Yanghe's Dream Blue M6+ led the gains, each increasing by 3 yuan per bottle; Wuliangye 1618 saw a minor increase of 1 yuan per bottle. On the downside, Blue-and-White Lang led the declines, dropping by 6 yuan per bottle; Premium Moutai, Fenjiu Blue-and-White 20, and Gujing Gongjiu Gu 20 all decreased by 3 yuan per bottle. Among these, Premium Moutai continued to hit a new low for the past month, while Gu 20 matched its lowest level this month. Feitian Moutai dropped by 2 yuan per bottle. The prices for Wuliangye Standard Fifth Generation Eighth Edition, Xijiu Junpin, and Crystal Jiannanchun remained unchanged compared to the previous day.
The daily data for "Liquor Price Insider" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions nationwide. These include, but are not limited to, distributors appointed by distilleries, independent social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw sample data consists of the actual transacted terminal retail prices from these points over the past 24 hours, aiming to provide objective, scientific, and fully traceable data on the market prices of renowned baijiu products. Following the official launch of Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle on the iMoutai platform at the start of the year (increased to 1,539 yuan per bottle on March 31) and the launch of Premium Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle on January 9, the gravitational influence of this new sales channel on the average terminal retail prices of these two products is gradually becoming apparent. The daily liquor prices released by "Liquor Price Insider" are calculated based on rules that weight actual transaction volumes; the quantifiable prices from this channel have been incorporated into the terminal retail price calculations for these two products.
In other significant baijiu industry news, Oriental Securities commented yesterday on Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd.'s 2025 annual report, stating that the company prioritizes price stability and is advancing market-oriented channel reforms, with its brand moat remaining deep. Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. has not set a quantitative growth target for 2026, providing a foundation for market-oriented reform and a stable recovery of industry prices. In the short term, the fourth quarter of 2025 was the quarter with the greatest operational pressure for the company, characterized by significant declines in wholesale prices across its entire product line, accumulation of non-standard inventory, and clear signals of an earnings bottom. From a medium- to long-term perspective, Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd.'s core investment logic of "scarcity + strong brand + high barriers" remains solid, and its moat is difficult to disrupt. Regarding investment advice, considering the slower-than-expected recovery in business consumption and Moutai's push for market-oriented channel reforms, Oriental Securities has lowered its profit forecasts for the company for 2026 and 2027. It now expects earnings per share for 2026 to 2028 to be 68.58 yuan, 73.34 yuan, and 78.59 yuan, respectively (previous forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were 81.42 yuan and 91.00 yuan, with 2028 being a new forecast). Maintaining the FCFF (Free Cash Flow to the Firm) valuation method, the firm assigns a target price of 1,688.74 yuan and reiterates its "Buy" rating. On Friday, Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd.'s stock price closed at 1,407.24 yuan.
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