Huaan Securities Co.,Ltd. has released a research report indicating that on the demand side of the photovoltaic (solar) sector, current demand is expected to remain at low levels. On the supply side, the details of policy implementation still require observation. Regarding pricing, the main solar industry chain prices are expected to fluctuate slightly around the cost line. The firm projects that the fundamentals will remain at the bottom in 2026, but looking ahead, new technologies are expected to become a key driver in accelerating industry consolidation. For the wind power sector, the primary catalysts moving forward include the commencement and bidding of key offshore wind projects, especially deep-sea projects, in 2026; the landing of overseas orders and the status of overseas bidding in 2026; and the 15th Five-Year Plan along with subsequent deep-sea planning developments.
Here are the main viewpoints from Huaan Securities Co.,Ltd.:
Solar: Demand Pressure Coupled with Ongoing Supply Consolidation, Industry Still in Bottoming Phase
Domestic solar demand is under pressure in the first half of 2026, with newly installed solar capacity totaling 86.15 GW from January to July 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 61%. The firm attributes this primarily to policies such as Document No. 136 issued in 2025, where earlier installation rushes led to demand being pulled forward, resulting in a significant year-on-year decline in installations during the first half of 2026. On the overseas front, cumulative export value for cells from January to July saw notable year-on-year growth, while cumulative module export value also registered a certain degree of year-on-year increase.
From the supply side, industry chain prices generally exhibited a fluctuating downward trend in the first half of 2026. Due to market supply-demand mismatches, prices for polysilicon, wafers, and cells peaked in March before retreating. Improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics still requires further capacity consolidation. In terms of profitability, during the second quarter of 2026, major companies in the solar sector reported total revenue of approximately 150.5 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year, mainly due to the slower pace of industry consolidation combined with weak demand, which pressured product prices. The polysilicon and wafer segments continue to face loss pressures, and future attention should be directed toward the pace of capacity release and the progress of anti-involution policies. Overall, the firm believes the solar industry remains in a bottoming phase, with demand recovery requiring time, and the pace of supply-side consolidation determining the speed of profitability repair. Moving forward, the key focus points are the pace of improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics and the progress of new technology industrialization.
Wind Power: Installation Decline Under High Base, Continued Focus on Offshore Wind and Overseas Expansion
From January to July 2026, newly added grid-connected wind power capacity nationwide reached 47.1 GW, down 12.3% year-on-year. In the first half of 2026, new onshore wind installations totaled 37.78 GW, down 22.7% year-on-year, while new offshore wind grid-connected installations were 0.84 GW, down 66.3% year-on-year. The firm believes the decline in wind installations is mainly attributed to the high base effect from the installation rush in 2025. In terms of performance, during the second quarter of 2026, major companies in the wind power sector reported total revenue of 145.4 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year. Among them, the submarine cable segment saw revenue growth of 29%, mainly due to companies actively expanding their submarine cable businesses and new application areas. Turbine manufacturers and wind power components benefited from domestic onshore wind demand and the advancement of overseas orders, achieving revenue growth. The tower and pile segment, however, experienced a decline due to the high base from the previous year. Gross margin performance across the wind power supply chain segments was mixed, with some segments showing improvement, but overall profit recovery remains limited.
Overall, the firm believes that subsequent growth in the wind power industry will primarily come from the progress of domestic offshore wind projects and the expansion of overseas markets. It recommends closely monitoring the construction pace of deep-sea offshore wind projects, the release of overseas orders, and the export progress of companies in the turbine, tower, and submarine cable segments.
Risk Warning
Industry demand falling short of expectations; capacity consolidation failing to meet expectations; risks related to new technology iteration.
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