According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, power battery installations in mainland China totaled 26.3 GWh in February, declining 24.6% year-on-year and 37.4% month-on-month. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery installations accounted for 20.6 GWh, or 78.3% of the total, falling 27.5% year-on-year and 36.9% month-on-month.
In terms of production scheduling, the lithium battery supply chain saw a comprehensive recovery in March. Post-holiday implementation of vehicle "trade-in" subsidy programs across regions, a dense schedule of new model launches in April and May, and a temporary "rush to export" effect spurred by adjustments to battery export tax rebate policies have provided strong support for short-term demand.
In mainland China, the automotive market slowdown in February led to a decline in power battery installations, although exports maintained strong momentum. Data shows that while February installations fell, battery exports reached 23.9 GWh, up 13.2% year-on-year but down 0.9% month-on-month, accounting for 20.6% of total sales for the month. Power battery exports specifically amounted to 16.9 GWh, comprising 70.6% of total exports, increasing 31.9% year-on-year but decreasing 4.6% month-on-month. Energy storage battery exports were 7.0 GWh, making up 29.4% of total exports (a 2.7 percentage point increase month-on-month), declining 15.5% year-on-year but rising 9.3% month-on-month.
Overseas, power battery installations continued to grow in January. Data from SNE Research indicates that installations in overseas markets reached 32.7 GWh in January, a 13.7% year-on-year increase. In terms of competitive landscape, the combined market share of the three major South Korean manufacturers (LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and SK On) fell by 10.4 percentage points year-on-year to 25.5%, with Samsung SDI's installations dropping significantly by 24.4% year-on-year. Japan's Panasonic performed steadily, with installations growing 22.0% year-on-year to 3.1 GWh, increasing its market share by 0.7 percentage points to 9.5%. Chinese companies, leveraging the cost advantages of LFP technology, saw their combined market share among the top ten manufacturers surge by 12.1 percentage points year-on-year to 57.0%. Specifically, the market shares of CATL and BYD rose to 34.2% and 11.3%, increasing by 3.4 and 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, respectively.
Production scheduling for March indicates a recovery, with industry chain activity continuing to rise. Data from Xinluo Lithium shows that planned production among sampled battery enterprises in mainland China reached 149.59 GWh in March, up 21.93% month-on-month. Among the four main materials, cathode material production was scheduled at 194,700 tonnes (up 23.3% month-on-month), anode material at 163,000 tonnes (up 16.4% month-on-month), separator at 1.895 billion square meters (up 8.7% month-on-month), and electrolyte at 107,500 tonnes (up 18.8% month-on-month).
On the demand side, the full implementation of post-holiday vehicle trade-in subsidies, the密集 new model launches in April-May, and the temporary export rush effect provide robust short-term support. Concurrently, geopolitical uncertainties are expected to further boost overseas energy storage demand, while Chinese manufacturers continue to expand their global market share by capitalizing on the cost advantages of LFP technology. Based on this, the outlook for full-year lithium battery demand remains positive. For investment targets, focus is recommended on leading companies with cost advantages, technological barriers, and advanced overseas presence, such as CATL (300750.SZ).
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