According to Woofun AI data, with a historical baseline of Bitcoin bear markets averaging 383 days, the current downward cycle has been running for 297 days, with the market approaching a key turning window.
Reviewing the past three complete cycles reveals clear patterns in bear market duration. The adjustment period from November 2013 to January 2015 lasted 410 days. After peaking in December 2017, the market didn't stabilize until December 2018, a 363-day process. The most recent decline from November 2021 to November 2022 continued for 376 days.
Woofun AI compiled data shows that Bitcoin bear market intervals generally fall between just over a year to about 13.5 months, with the average locked at 383 days. If last October 6's high is taken as the start of this bear market, 297 days have already elapsed.
The formation of this cycle is not driven by a single factor. The underlying reasons lie in structural changes such as global rising interest rates, evolving cryptocurrency regulatory policies, and institutional investment trends. Although historical averages provide a reference, differences in the macro environment and market sentiment determine the uniqueness of each bear market's trajectory, and past performance cannot be directly extrapolated linearly to the future.
For long-term Bitcoin holders, 297 days has already passed the midpoint of historical cycles, but there is still a gap from the average end time. When judging the recovery point, investors need to be wary of the limitations of historical data, comprehensively consider various economic indicators and potential risk factors, and avoid making deterministic decisions based solely on the time dimension.
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