Why Alibaba Will Outperform Amazon

Seeking Alpha2022-06-14

SummaryInflation pressures are rising in the US and are squeezing consumer demand.Monetary and fiscal policy in the West will tighten, while China will likely ease.Alibaba went through the worst of ...

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Comments

Simonnov
2022-06-15
Simonnov
Ic
ming22
2022-06-15
ming22
Both are good company
Looyusooi
2022-06-15
Looyusooi
Ok
Mic6226
2022-06-15
Mic6226
Good
Jess261
2022-06-15
Jess261
Okay
Ni76
2022-06-15
Ni76
Both are great stock!

Leave a comment

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Alibaba Will Outperform Amazon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-14 22:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4518217-alibaba-outperform-amazon><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryInflation pressures are rising in the US and are squeezing consumer demand.Monetary and fiscal policy in the West will tighten, while China will likely ease.Alibaba went through the worst of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4518217-alibaba-outperform-amazon\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"09988","symbol_name":"阿里巴巴-W","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4518217-alibaba-outperform-amazon","article_id":"1121400553","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121400553","pubTimestamp":1655217932,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryInflation pressures are rising in the US and are squeezing consumer demand.Monetary and fisca","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","AMZN":"亚马逊","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"translate_title":"为什么阿里巴巴-SW会胜过亚马逊","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"SummaryInflation pressures are rising in the US and are squeezing consumer demand.Monetary and fiscal policy in the West will tighten, while China will likely ease.Alibaba went through the worst of the tech-crackdown, and Amazon has more pain to come.Growth expectations for Amazon are unreasonable, but expectations for Alibaba are realistic.I expect Alibaba to outperform relative to Amazon.SummaryIn this article, I suggest a pair trade of going long Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and short Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). Much of my reasoning stems not from the respective companies' business models but from macroeconomic head- and tailwinds and fiscal and monetary policy differences between China and the USA. The business models of Alibaba and Amazon are relatively comparable and therefore, a good proxy for my macro pair trade idea.I suggest this trade for the coming 6-12 months. If readers believe that the similarities between both companies are not sufficient for a pair trade, I suggest expressing the same idea via going long Chinese Internet Equities via the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and short American Internet Equities via the Nasdaq (NDX).The Market has turnedThe Fed tightening is the single most important factor in equity markets today. After the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, the continuous provision of easy money from the Fed via Quantitative Easing resulted in US equities surging. Actively managed ETFs and funds underperformed because everybody could be sure that at some point, the Fed will step in to save the day.The fundamental reasoning of the Fed policies was that lower interest rates would spur credit demand of businesses and consumers because of cheaper debt costs. However, after the financial crisis, there were fewer investment opportunities for companies worthwhile pursuing. Additionally, many consumers and businesses saw their collateral collapse and thus were unwilling to borrow until their balance sheets were repaired. This process takes time to unwind. Thus, the economy had a shortage of borrowers for 14 years, and the Fed couldn't address the problem by lowering the debt costs. QE did almost nothing to the real economy. But it propped up the collateral.Fundamentally, the last 40 years have been disinflationary. Central Banks around the world expanded the money supply because there was no downside to printing money, as inflation was low and stable. The resulting wealth effects of these policies were massive, and the gap between poor and rich widened.Data by YChartsThe disinflationary environment vanished during the last 1.5 years because of two reasons. Firstly, the interconnection of the expansive fiscal and monetary policy provided a possibility to print money and inject it into the real economy. Secondly, ongoing supply shortages of commodities due to lack of investment during the last decade increased the cost pressures of businesses and consumers, resulting in cost-push inflation. The cost-push inflation now threatens to translate into a price/wage spiral. The Fed was too expansive during the last 14 years without major effects on the real economy. In March 2020, liquidity provision got to absurd levels. No, as the previously printed money arrives in the real economy, the Fed is caught with its pants down. Inflation was always the downside to money printing. But its effects were delayed due to the fundamental shortage of borrowers and absent transmission systems to the real economy.The Fed wants a reverse Wealth EffectThe Fed cannot control the supply shortages which emerged due to missing investments - especially in the energy sector. So, the Fed will try to crack down on the demand side to retake control of the inflation rate. It can achieve the goal of reducing demand most effectively by Quantitative Tightening, which will have the reverse effect of Quantitative Easing: It will devalue the collateral. The Fed hopes for a reverse wealth effect. It wants stock prices to depreciate and hopes it doesn't break the credit market or crush the labor market in the medium term.Due to significant government debt, I believe the Fed will pivot in the future as the credit market gets distressed and inflation eases due to lower demand. But the turning point is still far away at this point. Long-only doesn't work anymore. I believe further downside is coming for global equities, especially the ones at the top of the food chain of all globally diversified ETFs - i.e., the companies with the biggest market capitalizations in the world: American Internet Companies. These are the companies that profited most from Quantitative Easing, and they will be the ones hurt most by Quantitative Tightening.Going long and short in this environment is key if investors want to retain their purchasing power. Gaining purchasing power will be difficult due to inflation, but pair trades offer lower risk because of reduced directional market exposure.Amazon and Alibaba as ProxyBoth Amazon and Alibaba operate mainly in the consumer discretionary segment. Admittedly, the net earnings of Amazon consist of huge contributions from the AWS segment, which is a completely different business with much stronger margins. In that regard, there is a substantial difference in the business models. The Cloud computing segment of Alibaba has just turned towards profitability, and Amazon is much further ahead. However, the revenues of both companies largely stem from E-commerce.More importantly, 60% of all net sales of Amazon are in North America, and 26% constitute international sales. The remaining 14% consists of the cloud segment. Conversely, 74% of the net sales of Alibaba are in China, while 7% constitute international sales. The remaining 19% are cloud and other sales.Why short Amazon?The ongoing Fed tightening cycle is designed to hurt consumer demand in America via the reverse wealth effect. The average consumer in America will spend their income first on consumer staples and then on consumer discretionary items. Because prices of consumer staples items have increased due to cost-push inflation and wages are not responding in a similar manner (yet), the portion left for consumer discretionary spending is reduced. Furthermore, the cost side of Amazon's business increases due to higher energy and shipping costs. Because consumers are unable to spend the same portion of their income on consumer discretionary items, Amazon does not have much pricing power. Therefore the margins of its main business will most likely compress.Currently, Amazon is still one of the biggest companies by market capitalization. The stock profited massively from Quantitative Easing and will be hurt by Quantitative Tightening to a similar degree, as explained above.Because of growth forecasts and ETF inflows, the stock is trading at a high valuation. The P/E (FWD) is currently at 114x. EV/EBITDA (FWD) stands at 16x, and the P/FCF (FWD) is at 17x. If the revenue growth of Amazon decreases further, the stocks could be revalued at a much lower multiple. Currently, Amazon is still expected to grow revenues in 2022 by ~$55 billion (or ~12%). Current EPS estimates point towards a rapid recovery in 2022. I don't believe that is likely to happen.Why long Alibaba?The Chinese macroeconomic environment is currently ahead of the American macroeconomic environment. The Chinese economy suffered a big drawdown due to the mandated lockdowns and COVID restrictions. The China Caixin Manufacturing PMIdroppedto a low of 46 in April and started to reverse in May. Both output and new orders in China fell at a softer rate amid further declines in both export orders and employment. It is likely that the Chinese economy is already through the worst of this economic downturn. From now onwards, consumer spending growth is poised to return to positive territory.Chinese policymakers still have room for accommodative fiscal and monetary policy as the inflation rates remain low. In May 2022, China cut the borrowing rate of the five-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 15 basis points to 4.45% to stimulate the housing market. The People's Bank of China kept the rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) at 2.85%. The Chinese policymakers seem hesitant to stimulate the economy in an aggressive way because the Fed is tightening financial conditions at the same time. However, the monetary policy remains neutral in China.In 2021, Alibaba got hit by the Chinese regulatory tech crackdown. Alibaba had to pay a $2.8 billion fine for anti-monopoly violations. The company lost ~50% of its market cap during that time. Financial media and investment banks deemed Chinese Equities to be \"uninvestable\". However, recentlyJPMorganupgraded some Chinese stocks from neutral to overweight in 2022, and many others from underweight to neutral. Other investment banks followed. The Chinese regulators have signaled an easing of the tech crackdown. They have been aware of the VIE loophole for years and have not acted. It is not in China's interest to destroy offshore Chinese companies by challenging the existing VIEs. The VIE risk is now sufficiently priced in, as analysts had talked about it extensively and continue to do so. The worst for Alibaba seems to be over.Because of the selloff, Alibaba trades at significantly lower multiples. The P/E (FWD) is currently at 15x. EV/EBITDA (FWD) stands at 11x, and the P/FCF (FWD) is at 10x. Alibaba is expected to grow revenues in 2022 by only ~$4 billion (or 3%). Current EPS estimates expect stagnant earnings growth for the next four quarters. I believe Alibaba can surprise to the upside.The Charts speak for themselves Data by YChartsThe stock prices of Alibaba and Amazon have correlated strongly during the last few years. However, in late 2020 the stock of Alibaba erased all of its gains since its IPO and fell ~70%. I believe the gap will not widen but begin to close during the next 6-12 months.The TakeawaysRisks to the Pair TradeThe Chinese Crackdown on Internet companies could restart, and complications with Jack Ma and the Chinese Regulators could provide downside to the stock of Alibaba. I believe this risk has a low probability to materialize. If the crackdown continues, why would the Chinese regulators have an interest in signaling easing.The Fed could restart Quantitative Easing and therefore positively affect the market prices. I believe this is very unlikely to happen due to the inflationary pressures that the US is facing. I think at some point in the future a pivot is guaranteed. But I don't expect it in 2022 & early 2023. If the Fed starts to ease the monetary conditions, this pair trade will probably underperform massively.The Chinese recovery could take longer than expected, and Alibaba could have worse quarters ahead. I believe this is the greatest risk in this pair trade since Chinese regulators have taken the Zero-COVID strategy very seriously as opposed to most countries in the west. Recently, there have been partial lockdowns in Shanghai again due to fresh breakouts of the virus. However, sometime in the future, China will have to reopen, Amazon is affected by Chinese lockdowns too, and I believe much of the restrictive COVID policies are priced in.Closing ThoughtsEven with these risks in mind, I believe the downside of Amazon is much larger than the downside of Alibaba. The market expectations for revenue and earnings growth of Amazon in 2022 are not plausible with the current headwinds in mind. I believe Alibaba has a good chance of beating the forecasts, although this pair trade focuses more on the downside potential of both companies than the upside.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9055660599,"gmtCreate":1655265432511,"gmtModify":1676535600470,"author":{"id":"4097750438225520","authorId":"4097750438225520","name":"Simonnov","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4097750438225520","idStr":"4097750438225520"},"htmlText":"Ic","listText":"Ic","text":"Ic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055660599","repostId":1121400553,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9055897583,"gmtCreate":1655254956442,"gmtModify":1676535596542,"author":{"id":"3571044771112848","authorId":"3571044771112848","name":"ming22","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571044771112848","idStr":"3571044771112848"},"htmlText":"Both are good company&nbsp;","listText":"Both are good company&nbsp;","text":"Both are good company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055897583","repostId":1121400553,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9055176476,"gmtCreate":1655253535295,"gmtModify":1676535595994,"author":{"id":"4100437715079400","authorId":"4100437715079400","name":"Looyusooi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4100437715079400","idStr":"4100437715079400"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055176476","repostId":1121400553,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9055171600,"gmtCreate":1655253462400,"gmtModify":1676535595858,"author":{"id":"4109843165472380","authorId":"4109843165472380","name":"Mic6226","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/642ea3ba3ea408756b94df1fc4fc2d69","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a4c8d97279fa9f8f1fa9749a6bdff4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4109843165472380","idStr":"4109843165472380"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055171600","repostId":1121400553,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9055170567,"gmtCreate":1655253377859,"gmtModify":1676535595794,"author":{"id":"3586490638953193","authorId":"3586490638953193","name":"Jess261","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586490638953193","idStr":"3586490638953193"},"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055170567","repostId":1121400553,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9055140125,"gmtCreate":1655252926367,"gmtModify":1676535595564,"author":{"id":"4113028327303432","authorId":"4113028327303432","name":"Ni76","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c36f4ea820b0565bb42d64a10feed810","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4113028327303432","idStr":"4113028327303432"},"htmlText":"Both are great stock!&nbsp;","listText":"Both are great stock!&nbsp;","text":"Both are great stock!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055140125","repostId":1121400553,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":296,"commentSize":45,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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