Copper-related stocks saw their declines widen during afternoon trading. At the time of writing, MMG (01208) fell 7.84% to HK$8.82, CMOC (03993) dropped 4.78% to HK$21.92, ZIJIN MINING (02899) declined 3.58% to HK$40.44, and CHINFMINING (01258) decreased 2.37% to HK$13.18. A research report from Citi indicated that copper prices face significant downside risks amid ongoing tensions involving Iran. The bank's base case scenario anticipates that the conflict will ease within the coming weeks, with copper prices rebounding to between $13,500 and $14,000 per ton within three months. However, there is a real possibility that copper could drop below $12,000 per ton in the near term, as continued disruptions to energy infrastructure and shipping in the Gulf region, combined with fading expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and weaker cyclical growth forecasts, may lead to further unwinding of copper positions. Separately, Bohai Securities noted that while downstream enterprises in China are gradually resuming production, market demand remains limited, and high prices continue to suppress consumption. Military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran could disrupt global supply chains and intensify resource nationalism, indirectly supporting copper prices. Nevertheless, high copper prices are likely to constrain demand, limiting the momentum for further price increases. Market participants are advised to monitor geopolitical developments overseas and the pace of copper inventory drawdowns.
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