Good morning. First, let's focus on the latest statement from U.S. President Donald Trump. According to the latest reports, Trump issued another threat on the 8th regarding the unrest in Iran, stating that the U.S. would deal a "severe blow" to Iran if further casualties occur.
During an interview with a radio station that day, Trump said the U.S. is closely monitoring the unrest in Iran. He expressed uncertainty about "whether specific individuals must be held accountable," but emphasized that if Iranian authorities bear direct responsibility for the casualties, "they will pay a heavy price." It is reported that protests have occurred in multiple locations across Iran, resulting in casualties. Trump had previously threatened on the 2nd to intervene in the Iranian unrest. Iranian officials have stressed that the Iranian people will resolve their own issues through dialogue and interaction among themselves, and will not permit any form of external interference. They added that Iran would respond if the U.S. takes any adventurous actions. Trump also stated that the U.S. must "own" the entire island of Greenland, rather than merely exercising military and defense rights there based on existing treaties. Trump claimed that ownership itself carries strategic value that cannot be obtained through leasing or treaties. Regarding the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair, Trump said he "has already made a decision in his heart," but did not reveal the final candidate. When asked about his chief economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, Trump replied, "I don't want to say," though he described Hassett as "certainly one of the people I like." Notably, Iran experienced a sudden, widespread internet blackout. On the evening of the 8th local time, internet services in the capital Tehran were disrupted. NetBlocks, an international non-governmental organization monitoring global internet connectivity, stated that Iran is implementing a nationwide internet restriction, which is related to the ongoing protests in various regions. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif arrived in Beirut, Lebanon, on January 8 for a visit. Zarif stated that Iran is "prepared for any scenario." He simultaneously emphasized that Iran is "not seeking war," but is "prepared for war." In a social media post on January 7 local time, Trump claimed that the U.S. military budget for the 2027 fiscal year "should be increased from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion," stating this move would help build the "military of our dreams." Media personality and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson released a video that evening suggesting this indicates the U.S. might be preparing for a "world war." Influenced by rising geopolitical risks, international oil prices surged overnight. At the time of writing, the front-month Brent crude futures contract had risen over 4.5%, and the front-month WTI crude futures contract was up 4.3%.
The CME Group has issued a notice for the third time recently, increasing performance bond requirements for precious metal futures. A notice from the CME Group on the 8th local time announced an increase in performance bond requirements for precious metal varieties, marking the third such notice in nearly a month. The notice stated that after the close of trading on January 9 local time, it will comprehensively increase performance bonds for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts. Additionally, performance bonds for most natural gas contracts will be lowered. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated on Thursday local time that she anticipates interest rate cuts totaling approximately 150 basis points by 2026. This move is expected to create about 1 million jobs without triggering inflation. Bowman noted that it's difficult to say policy is neutral, and that underlying inflation has largely returned to near the Fed's 2% target. She projected the U.S. economy would maintain strong growth this year, but warned this outlook could be jeopardized if the Fed fails to reduce short-term borrowing costs. Pressure from "weak fundamentals" persists, with several polysilicon futures contracts hitting limit-down. On January 8, multiple polysilicon futures contracts fell by their daily limit in the afternoon session. By the midday close, the main 2605 contract was quoted at 53,610 yuan per tonne, down 9%.
Industry experts widely believe the current decline in polysilicon futures prices results from a combination of fundamental factors and market sentiment. It is reported that two significant pieces of market news recently emerged. One suggests that leading polysilicon producers have plans to reduce output. The other is a market rumor that the State Administration for Market Regulation summoned the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and several PV companies for talks. The discussions allegedly involved communicating monopoly risks, proposing clear rectification opinions, and setting requirements for the companies'整改 work. Although this news is not fully confirmed, some media have reported that the talks did indeed take place. Sun Weidong, chief analyst at Orient Futures, believes that if the above news is true, it would be bearish for polysilicon. "Judging from the rectification opinions, the polysilicon price alliance is difficult to sustain. Currently, spot polysilicon quotes and transactions above 60,000 yuan/ton rely mainly on the alliance's price support. If the alliance collapses, high prices will be hard to maintain, and companies might compete to lower prices and sell inventory," Sun said. He added that before the platform company was established, the actual transaction price for dense复投料 was between 51,000 and 53,000 yuan/ton, indicating that futures prices still carry a significant premium. If polysilicon companies do not subsequently cut production, the market might revisit the extreme downturn seen in the first half of 2025. Referring to that period, once polysilicon prices begin to fall, downstream sectors like wafers, cells, and modules could enter a negative feedback loop of declining prices, potentially leading to a "wait-and-see" attitude among buyers. "On January 7, even amid strong bullish sentiment in the commodity markets, polysilicon futures already showed weakness. The market news fermented deeply yesterday, driving the price down," explained Li Xiangying, an analyst at Guosen Futures. Against the backdrop of weak fundamentals, the polysilicon market sentiment is bearish, making it prone to rapid price declines triggered by negative news. The fundamental reason for the drop in polysilicon futures prices remains weak underlying supply-demand dynamics; later, futures pricing may gradually realign with these fundamentals. Looking at the spot market, current polysilicon spot prices continue their upward trend. According to Antaike statistics, this week's average transaction price for N-type复投料 was 59,200 yuan/ton, up 9.83% week-on-week; the average transaction price for N-type granular silicon was 55,800 yuan/ton, up 10.5% week-on-week. Meanwhile, market transaction activity has improved. Antaike reported that the number of major companies signing orders increased to five this week, with new order transaction prices mostly rising above 60,000 yuan/ton, and old orders being executed gradually. "Although recent spot polysilicon transactions have seen a slight recovery with prices rising steadily, the overall market atmosphere remains subdued," said Liu Jiaqi, an analyst at CITIC Securities Futures. Polysilicon remains the segment with the highest production schedule in the main industry chain, and inventory accumulation pressure still exists. From a fundamental perspective, analyst Ji Yuanfei from GF Futures believes that the current oversupply situation in the polysilicon market has not changed, and the futures price decline further reflects this "weak reality." Specifically, polysilicon demand in January shows no bright spots, and downstream operating rates are expected to continue declining. Attention should be paid to the recovery of orders in March. Against this "weak reality," achieving supply-demand balance requires related companies to intensify production cuts. According to SMM data, domestic polysilicon production in January is estimated at about 107,000 tons, while demand is less than 80,000 tons, indicating persistent inventory build-up pressure that will also weigh on spot prices. Looking ahead, Li Xiangying believes the short-term pricing logic for polysilicon futures may continue to converge with fundamentals. Given the current "weak reality," prices are likely to remain under pressure. However, upstream companies currently exhibit strong willingness to support prices, so subsequent focus should be on dynamics in the polysilicon spot market. Hongze Research analyst Liu Yixian suggests that if upstream producers do not cut output and instead adopt a strategy of lowering prices to reduce inventory, it could lead to a further downward shift in the polysilicon futures price center, although the downside space is also relatively limited. Traders are advised to enter the market cautiously and implement proper risk control measures.
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