Morgan Stanley star analyst Adam Jonas has issued what may be his most compelling endorsement of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system to date, based on his own driving experience, arguing that the autonomous driving challenge represented by the "car-shaped robot" is nearing resolution.
According to a recent Morgan Stanley research report, Adam Jonas accumulated 2,713 miles using FSD over the past 12 months, accounting for 33% of the total mileage on his Tesla Model Y.
He stated that he has activated FSD in 100% of his trips, with the system actually driving an estimated 98% to 99% of those miles. Last week, FSD even completed a 28-mile round trip from his residence to Morgan Stanley's Times Square headquarters with zero human intervention. Jonas put it bluntly: "If you see me sitting in a Model Y, I am not driving."
The release of this report further reinforced market expectations for the maturity of Tesla's FSD technology and prompted a reassessment of the timeline for autonomous driving commercialization. Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal-weight rating on Tesla Motors (TSLA.O) with a price target of $400, while the stock currently trades at $357.45.
Analyst's Firsthand Test: FSD Already Allows Complete Relaxation
Adam Jonas detailed his firsthand experience with FSD in the report using first-person narration, with language that was unusually personal in tone.
He said he has been driving since age 15, and Tesla's FSD has completely transformed his understanding of driving. "When I used FSD in the past, I had to stay attentive. But now I don't. Over the past year, whenever I activate FSD, I enter a complete 'zone-out' state — listening to audiobooks, sending emails, playing air drums to Rush — until I arrive at my destination."
Jonas also said his level of trust in FSD now exceeds that of ride-hailing drivers — he would be willing to let FSD independently complete long-distance journeys with his children rather than choosing a human-driven shared mobility service. Notably, he also admitted that he has not yet been able to convince his wife to trust FSD, and she is actually the primary driver of the vehicle.
Mileage Data: Tesla FSD's Scale Effect Has Emerged
The report cited Tesla's official FSD vehicle safety report data, presenting the depth of FSD's technological accumulation from a scale perspective.
As of the report's publication, Tesla FSD's cumulative driving mileage was approaching 15 billion miles. The entire Tesla fleet is currently driving approximately 24,000 miles per minute in FSD mode — equivalent to completing multiple round trips from Miami to Anchorage every minute, or the distance from Miami extending to Seattle and then to San Francisco.
Morgan Stanley calculated that this speed is approximately 1,800 times the speed of sound (about 12.8 miles per minute). From a market penetration standpoint, the firm estimates that Tesla FSD currently accounts for approximately 0.34% of total U.S. consumer driving mileage and projects it could rise to about 1% within the next 18 to 24 months. In regions with high Tesla vehicle concentration, such as the San Francisco Bay Area, this ratio could reach several times the national average.
Price Target Composition: Robotics and Autonomous Driving Are Core Valuation Pillars
Morgan Stanley's $400 price target for Tesla consists of five components, with autonomous driving and robotics businesses together contributing more than half of the valuation.
Specifically: the core automotive business contributes $45 per share, based on approximately 8.5 million vehicle sales by 2040 and an 8.4% EBIT margin; network services contribute $144 per share, assuming an 80% FSD attachment rate by 2040 and a monthly ARPU of $240; Tesla Mobility contributes $120 per share, based on approximately 5 million vehicles and a charge of approximately $1.33 per mile; the energy business contributes $35 per share; and humanoid robots contribute $56 per share after discounting at a 50% probability.
Morgan Stanley believes that if FSD penetration continues to increase, unsupervised FSD is deployed, and Robotaxi and Optimus robot initiatives make progress, these could further unlock Tesla's valuation potential. However, competition from traditional automakers, Chinese automakers, and technology companies, as well as risks related to FSD and Robotaxi commercialization progress, regulatory policies, China market performance, and current valuation levels, remain areas that warrant attention.
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