United Airlines is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings after the market closes on Tuesday. During this period, the airline industry and United itself have experienced significant volatility due to fluctuating oil prices, merger speculation, and widespread concerns about consumer spending power.
According to consensus analyst estimates, the Chicago-based carrier is projected to report first-quarter revenue of $144.5 billion, a 9.4% increase year-over-year. Last year, Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby stated that he expected United to maintain its "revenue growth momentum" into 2026.
The market anticipates United's first-quarter adjusted earnings per share to be $1.09, representing a nearly 19.8% increase compared to the same period last year. EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) is forecasted to reach $13.5 billion.
Significant increases in oil prices have dealt a heavy blow to airlines. Ongoing factors such as intermittent shipping blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainties surrounding the extension of ceasefire agreements involving the US, Israel, and Iran have sustained pressure on fuel costs.
Last month, Kirby noted that rising jet fuel prices had already imposed an additional $400 million in costs on the company. Because United does not hedge its fuel expenses, the airline could face substantial losses.
Despite these headwinds, United's earnings are expected to be cushioned by the strength of its premium customer segment. In the fourth quarter of last year, revenue from premium cabins grew 9% year-over-year, with full-year growth reaching 11%, significantly outpacing the overall revenue growth of 3.5%. In 2025, United expanded its premium seating capacity to a record 27.4 million seats, accounting for approximately 12% of its total passenger capacity, and the company continues to focus on expanding its presence in the premium market.
Last month, United introduced a new economy class product, the "Rest Suite," a North American first. This innovation converts three standard economy seats on long-haul, wide-body aircraft into a lie-flat sofa space. Scheduled for launch next year, this product is positioned between standard economy and premium economy classes. It is designed to attract price-sensitive families and couples seeking an upgrade without the high cost of Polaris business class tickets.
Separately, Kirby and United are reportedly exploring other avenues for growth. Earlier this month, reports indicated that during a February meeting at the White House, Kirby directly proposed a merger with American Airlines to the Trump administration. The proposal was framed as a strategic move to create a "national flagship carrier" capable of competing against foreign airlines that receive government subsidies.
American Airlines publicly denied these rumors on April 17th, stating that the company was "not engaged in, and has no intention to engage in" any merger discussions and warning that such a deal would be detrimental to market competition.
Analysts are expected to question Kirby about the merger speculation with American Airlines and whether carriers like JetBlue or others are potential acquisition targets. The CEO of United's main competitor, Delta Air Lines, has previously predicted that the airline industry will see more merger activity, and even some airline failures, due to fuel cost pressures and market uncertainty.
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