“酱茅”海天味业年内市值近腰斩，陷阱还是机遇？

闺蜜财经2021-09-17

今年的股市，说是价值投资者的“噩梦”也不为过。不知蜜友们感觉如何，蜜姐身边很多人，现在已经开始躺平了。尤其是年初拿了很多价值股的人，中国平安、万科、伊利、海天味业……惨得一塌糊涂。昨天，蜜妹关注到，海天味业发生6笔大宗交易，合计成交量81.27万股，成交金额6449.95万元。进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生129笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为23.92亿元。这是什么情况，抄底的时机到了吗？...

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Comments

磐石533
2021-09-18
磐石533
一波還未平息，一波又來侵襲
云里梦里飞
2021-09-18
云里梦里飞
咋回事啊
Youn7276
2021-09-18
Youn7276
閱
- 云里梦里飞:
  加油
- 神话者:
  [微笑]
雨后就是彩虹
2021-09-18
雨后就是彩虹
666
- 云里梦里飞:
  屏蔽了？
- Gnehnusee:
  ?
- 雨后就是彩虹:
  666

Leave a comment

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opportunity?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ca46a857e7797d51b241cc94b02ef8","symbols_score_info":{"603288":0.9},"content_text":"今年的股市，说是价值投资者的“噩梦”也不为过。不知蜜友们感觉如何，蜜姐身边很多人，现在已经开始躺平了。\n尤其是年初拿了很多价值股的人，中国平安、万科、伊利、海天味业……惨得一塌糊涂。\n昨天，蜜妹关注到，海天味业发生6笔大宗交易，合计成交量81.27万股，成交金额6449.95万元。\n进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生129笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为23.92亿元。\n这是什么情况，抄底的时机到了吗？\n\n01\n海天味业，可能不少蜜友并不知道这个名字。其历史要从1955年说起，彼时佛山25家古酱园谋略合并重组，新组建的厂命名为“海天酱油厂”。\n1994年海天转制，从国有企业变身为市属全民所有制企业，1995年成为国有参股的有限责任公司——佛山市海天调味食品有限公司。\n2010年11月，海天调味有限整体变更为股份有限公司。\n2014年2月11日，海天在上交所主板成功挂牌上市，股票名称为海天味业。\n上市这几年里，海天味业“酱茅”的称号名不虚传。根据公开报道，以后复权的股价来计算，这7年海天味业的股价涨幅最高达13倍，市值最高大概7082亿。\n不过今年来看，这只白马似乎有“偃旗息鼓”的态势。\n\n先来看看海天味业最近一年的股价走势。如下图，最高点时是今年1月，彼时海天味业的股价到了每股160多块，随后在震荡中下行，直到8月底前，还维持在百元以上的价格。\n时间进入8月31日，情况似乎又不太妙，当天海天味业直接跌停，此后几个交易日继续维持下跌趋势，陆陆续续阴跌到如今的80多块。\n今天（9月16日），海天味业股价和大盘走势相反，呈大涨状态。这是触底反弹了吗？\n02\n如果说前半年的下跌和价值股普遍的萎靡状态、市值回归等有关，那么8月底的那场大跌，主要还是得从海天味业本身找原因。\n情况要从8月30日，海天味业发布的半年度报告说起。简单说，这是一份不及预期的“成绩单”。\n\n半年报披露，2021上半年，海天味业营收123.32亿元，同比增长6.36%；归母净利润33.53亿元，同比增长3.07%，经营活动产生的现金流量净额大跌83.85%，从2020上半年的15.70亿元，减少到今年上半年的2.54亿元。\n尤其值得注意的是二季度。\n从品类来看，上半年海天味业的酱油、调味酱、蚝油的营收同比还是增长的，但二季度这三大品类的同比增速都不约而同下降了。\n上述三大产品同比增速分别下降了7.2%、8.66%、7.06%。\n\n分区域来看，海天味业二季度也在走“下坡路”。东部、南部、中部、北部、西部营收同比分别下降了7.10%、9.47%、8.10%、14.15%、4.82%。\n此外，因为上半年大豆等原材料价格的上升，导致生产成本变高，压缩了利润空间。2021上半年，海天味业的毛利率和净利率分别为39.31%、27.21%，同比去年下降了3.63和0.87个百分点。\n基于此，华西证券研究所下调了海天味业的评级，从买入下调至增持。\n\n03\n除了成本增长压缩了利润空间，海天味业还有一个“竞争者”是社区团购。\n作为线下渠道的大佬，海天味业的商超等货架铺设位置很好，优势明显。\n但随着社区团购的兴起，线下渠道的销售影响亦明显。公开数据显示，二季度，海天味业的线下渠道收入47.4亿元，同比下降10%。\n另一方面，因为社区团购不需要支付大额的条码费，相当于所有品牌都在同一起跑线，海天味业传统的“护城河”优势没有了，这对其销售增长其实是不利的。\n未来海天味业的增长空间有多大？从渠道方面，主要看社区团购对其的冲击，以及公司自身对此的应对策略。\n目前，海天味业正在推进营销转型，一方面持续强化线下网络，上半年净新增经销商356家，同时加速开拓在线业务，二季度在线收入2.5亿，同比增14.4%，这个速度也还可以。\n\n产品方面，就是是否能在稳住酱油这个基本盘的基础上，再进一步寻找新的业绩增长点。\n这两年，海天味业的动作颇多，几大主营产品外，后面又陆续布局醋、鸡精、味精、料酒等细分领域，后面又陆续推出了火锅底料、食用油、大米等产品。现在的产品系也很广泛。\n但就蜜妹来看，消费者更愿意买单的还是他的主营产品线，副线产品的存在感并不高。这从数据中也可以看到。2021半年报显示，除去酱油、蚝油、酱类，海天味业的“其他”产品营收11.25亿，占收入的比例为9.13%，营收占比是各项中的最低。\n所以，新的增长点是否会有大的突破，目前还不明朗。\n最后，买入一只股票，除了基本盘和趋势，更重要的是价格。\n2020年以后，海天味业的市盈率最高时超过100倍。尽管目前跌到了56倍左右，但仍然高于食品饮料行业的平均数值。市销率目前16倍多，也高于不到15倍的行业平均值。\n\n还值得注意的是，最近1年里海天味业的股东数，从4万多户增加到2021年半年末时的16万多户，增加了3倍。这是什么概念？\n从2014年上市到2020年这6年时间，海天味业的股东数量只是从2.4万左右增加到大概4.8万。也就是说，过去1年里，海天味业增加的股东数远超于过去6年增加的总和。\n这意味着大量散户的进场，也意味着机构持股的减少。这是啥信号？","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":884498556,"gmtCreate":1631924693975,"gmtModify":1676530669561,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"htmlText":"一波還未平息，一波又來侵襲","listText":"一波還未平息，一波又來侵襲","text":"一波還未平息，一波又來侵襲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884498556","repostId":1121845156,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":884567931,"gmtCreate":1631920786123,"gmtModify":1676530667993,"author":{"id":"3568431359478653","authorId":"3568431359478653","name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568431359478653","authorIdStr":"3568431359478653"},"htmlText":"咋回事啊","listText":"咋回事啊","text":"咋回事啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884567931","repostId":1121845156,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":884538557,"gmtCreate":1631916450779,"gmtModify":1676530667040,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884538557","repostId":1121845156,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5907269,"gmtCreate":1631920795108,"gmtModify":1663234044444,"authorId":3568431359478653,"author":{"id":3568431359478653,"idStr":"3568431359478653","authorId":3568431359478653,"name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":884538557,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"加油","text":"加油","html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