Recently, the A-share market has seen rapid style rotations. The growth sectors that had been rising persistently are now undergoing a concentrated correction. The ChiNext Index has been in a pullback phase since hitting a record high in late June, and the sharp short-term fluctuations have sparked significant divergence among investors. Some are concerned that the rally has peaked and that a valuation bubble is bursting, while other capital is continuing to deploy against the trend. Several exchange-traded products tracking the ChiNext Index have seen consecutive net inflows. As of July 17th, the ChinaAMC ChiNext ETF (159957) has recorded net capital inflows for six consecutive trading days, attracting a total of over 726 million yuan.
However, the recent price action has unsettled many participants: is this growth rally merely at "halftime" or is the "final whistle" blowing? To answer this question, one must look beyond the short-term fluctuations of the candlestick charts and return to more fundamental aspects—what the ChiNext board represents today, what it stands for, and the changes it is undergoing.
An Evolving Board: From Speculative Play to Core Carrier of New Quality Productive Forces
Many investors still associate the ChiNext board with the era of M&A speculation and concept hype around 2015. However, after sixteen years of evolution, the implementation of the registration-based IPO system, and the latest round of system optimizations in 2026, the sector's industry structure, corporate quality, and profit logic have undergone a thorough restructuring. This is the core premise for understanding its investment value.
As of now, the combined weight of the top three industries in the ChiNext Index—Communications, Electronics, and Electric Power Equipment—exceeds 78%. The proportion of early-stage sectors like traditional media and small-cap environmental protection has been shrinking continuously, marking a definitive departure from the fragmented, chaotic landscape of small-cap thematic stocks.
In terms of corporate quality, over 80% of the more than 1,400 listed companies on the ChiNext board are high-tech enterprises. Leading companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL), Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd, and those dubbed the "Sheng-Yi-Zhong-Tian" group—Shenghong Technology, Zhongji Innolight, New Epoch Technology, and Tianfu Communications—constitute the new core assets of the ChiNext board. It no longer tracks a vague concept of growth, but rather the cutting edge of China's industrial upgrade—AI computing power, new energy, and high-end manufacturing.
This shift in industry structure implies a change in the valuation logic for the ChiNext board. In the past, the market explained its high valuations with a "growth premium." Today, valuations are supported by tangible industrial prosperity and the ability to deliver on earnings.
Nearly 80% of Interim Reports Show Positive Previews, Validating the Growth Narrative
July is the window for interim report verification in the A-share market. Data shows that as of July 17th, 84 ChiNext-listed companies have released their preliminary earnings forecasts for the first half of the year. According to the forecast types, 59 companies expect profit growth, and 7 expect to turn a profit, bringing the combined proportion of companies with positive forecasts to 78.57%.
Longsys expects its first-half net profit attributable to shareholders to reach between 9.2 billion and 11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 600 times. Shannon Semiconductor expects its net profit to surge by over 2100% year-on-year. Companies like Fuxing Co., Ltd. and Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd. also forecast net profit increases exceeding 2500%. Several companies related to the AI industry chain have simultaneously released impressive preliminary results, further confirming the high prosperity of the entire AI hardware industry chain.
The widespread positive earnings previews provide the most solid fundamental support for the ChiNext board at present. Following the valuation expansion in the first half of the year, the market is entering a phase of "earnings verification." Companies with real orders and profit expectations will continue to gain recognition from capital. Based on the currently disclosed data, the growth logic of the ChiNext board is being validated one by one by its earnings performance.
Post-Adjustment: Where Do Valuations Stand?
Following the recent rapid correction, valuation pressure on the ChiNext board has been significantly alleviated.
In terms of absolute valuation, the latest price-to-earnings ratio of the ChiNext Index is around 46 times, placing it at the 60.78th percentile of its historical range over the past decade. Meanwhile, according to Wind consensus estimates, the ChiNext board's revenue is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate exceeding 26% from 2026 to 2027, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to grow at a compound annual rate exceeding 40%.
Valuations are below their historical median, while profit growth expectations remain elevated. This combination of "valuation compression and earnings expansion" often characterizes important windows for medium-to-long-term positioning.
Looking beyond daily price movements, the logic supporting the medium-to-long-term allocation value of the ChiNext board possesses strong sustainability, resting on four pillars: policy, industry, valuation, and index mechanisms. These are also the core reasons for the continuous deployment by long-term capital.
System Reforms Are Reshaping the Board's Foundational Logic
Beyond changes in industry structure and valuation, the ChiNext board is undergoing a profound institutional transformation.
On April 10, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Opinions on Deepening ChiNext Reform to Better Serve the Development of New Quality Productive Forces," officially launching the reform. The core of the reform involves optimizing the entire ChiNext system through measures such as adding a fourth set of listing criteria, introducing a "dual-track" system for growth and R&D investment, implementing a shelf registration system for refinancing, and introducing a market maker mechanism.
Three months after the reform's implementation, its effects are beginning to show: the ChiNext board has accepted 66 new IPO applications, with 8 applying under the fourth set of criteria; 44 listed companies have proposed refinancing plans, 9 have proposed major asset restructuring plans, and 96 have proposed equity incentive plans.
The significance of this reform lies not only in allowing more high-quality innovative enterprises to "enter" the board but also in ensuring that capital flows more smoothly. The ChiNext board is transitioning from a focus on "whether a company can list" to a new stage of "how to effectively utilize the capital market." For investors, this means a systematic improvement in the asset quality, liquidity, and long-term investment value of the ChiNext board.
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Regarding the current adjustment, several securities firms have offered relatively positive assessments. Huayuan Securities noted that ChiNext valuations are at historically low levels, offering medium-to-long-term allocation value. The core status of hard tech and growth stocks remains prominent, and structural opportunities may emerge in the second half of the year. The firm suggests focusing on leading tech companies with clear profit inflection points in high-growth sectors and high-quality assets that have been oversold. Galaxy Securities stated in a research report that from an allocation perspective, the current phase of adjustment in the growth sector represents a healthy correction process. Short-term market fluctuations do not alter the medium-to-long-term positive industry trends, and high-growth tech sectors remain the main allocation theme for the market over the medium to long term.
The ChiNext board carries the growth future of Chinese companies representing new quality productive forces in areas like new energy, artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and innovative healthcare. For investors who can tolerate a certain degree of volatility and are optimistic about the long-term trend of China's industrial upgrade, there is no need to be swayed by short-term panic. By adopting a 3-5 year long-term perspective, objectively assessing the board's valuation and growth prospects, and rationally planning allocation strategies, one can capture the long-term dividends of the growth sectors.
The ChinaAMC ChiNext ETF (159957) closely tracks the ChiNext Index, aggregating assets related to new quality productive forces and exhibiting significant characteristics of high growth and high volatility. According to the Shenwan industry classification, the index tracked by this ETF is heavily weighted in sectors like Communications (30.07%), Electronics (24.33%), and Electric Power Equipment (24.04%). With a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, it offers the lowest fee level among comparable exchange-traded products, helping investors access the ChiNext board at a low cost.
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