Protein meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans hit an 11-week low, dragged down by the sharp drop in oil prices. Oil prices fell sharply after Trump's Republican Party lost control of Congress in the midterm elections. Investors are betting that this power shift could accelerate the end of the U.S.-Iran conflict. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced on Wednesday that private exporters reported sales of 167,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to Spain. Early on the 11th, the USDA will release its November supply and demand report, and the market expects U.S. soybean stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year to climb to 331 million bushels, slightly above the 315 million bushels in the October report.
Domestically, protein meal continued to probe lower. Falling costs and insufficient downstream purchasing willingness both weighed on soybean meal futures. As soybean crushing volumes recovered to high levels, soybean meal inventories continued to climb, rising more than 20% year-on-year, with the accumulation pressure weighing on the market. The futures market continues to digest the pressure from falling import costs and high inventories, and going forward the market will keep watching soybean cost and soybean meal demand expectations, as well as capital flows.
Oils: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell for a third consecutive trading day, touching a four-month low, as the market expected October palm oil stocks to hit a record high. U.S. soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed fell, tracking the retreat in crude oil. Oil prices fell sharply after Trump's Republican Party lost control of Congress in the midterm elections. Investors are betting that this power shift could accelerate the end of the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Domestically, oils futures followed overseas markets lower. Palm oil fell more than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Domestic oils inventories continued to climb, downstream buying was mainly for immediate needs, and market trading was limited. Weak fundamentals are currently dominating the market, and going forward the market will keep watching geopolitical conflicts, changes in import costs and end-user consumption.
Hogs: On Wednesday, near-month hog contracts led losses while far-month contracts followed lower, extending the pattern of weakness in nearby months and strength in deferred months. On the day, the hog weighted contract saw a small reduction in positions, with total open interest at 472,000 lots. In November, major hog enterprises plan to increase slaughter volumes, slaughter weights remain high, individual farmers are willing sellers, and the demand side lacks effective support, with an ample supply backdrop capping upside for hog prices.
Survey data show that key breeding enterprises' hog slaughter in November rose 2.56% from October, with large increases in Shandong and Jiangsu, while planned volumes in Zhejiang and Jiangxi fell month-on-month. Individual farmers' willingness to sell at a loss is relatively strong, market supply is ample, enthusiasm for secondary fattening is low, and continued increases in slaughter weights keep expanding pork supply. On November 4, mainstream hog transaction prices in the Heilongjiang market were 8.82 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the 3rd. Mainstream hog transaction prices in the Henan market were 8.88 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the 3rd. The hog market continues to show a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality.
Overall, after the National Day holiday, the supply side of the hog market continued to add weight, spot hog prices fell seasonally, and low-priced pork entered the market, leaving hog prices under pressure to adjust, with the strong expectations and weak reality pattern unchanged.
Eggs: On Wednesday, egg futures fluctuated with a firmer bias, and the main 2612 contract closed up 1.13% for the day at 3,591 yuan per 500 kg. On the spot side, Zhuochuang data showed that as of November 4, the national egg price was 4.21 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from November 3. In production areas, Ningjin pink-shell eggs were 4.1 yuan/jin, and Heishan brown-shell eggs were 4.1 yuan/jin; in sales areas, Puxi brown-shell eggs were 4.29 yuan/jin, and Guangzhou brown-shell eggs were 4.55 yuan/jin. Supply sources were normal, digestion speed was steady, spot prices fluctuated in a stable range, and futures prices fluctuated with a firmer bias. Attention should be paid to the impact of spot prices and market sentiment on futures prices.
Corn: On Wednesday, corn opened slightly lower, and the main contract closed as a doji after swinging. Early in the week, near-month contracts extended a rebound due to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the weighted contract's total open interest remained at a high level of 2.26 million lots. The listing of northeast high-moisture grain has entered a concentrated phase, but grassroots reluctance to sell has clearly warmed compared with earlier, farmers have limited acceptance of low prices, and more are holding grain cobs and waiting. Sinograin has successively launched rotation purchases in Heilongjiang, Jilin and other places, releasing a policy-side signal of a baseline mindset and supporting market sentiment.
Drying tower costs moved higher, traders were cautious about building inventories but still had some willingness to buy on dips. Port arrivals remained at high levels, but high-quality grain sources were still favored by the market. Downstream purchasing was mainly for contract execution, and bulk vessel shipment volumes did not show significant month-on-month expansion. Port traders' sentiment to hold prices strengthened compared with earlier, but expectations of increased production-area supply limited upside flexibility. Arrivals at North China deep-processing enterprises remained low, forcing enterprises to raise purchase prices to maintain daily production. Grassroots corn harvesting is basically wrapping up, but the proportion of grain cobs being held and watched remains high, and the pace of dry grain listing is slow.
Deep-processing industry operating rates fluctuated slightly, inventory pressure eased somewhat but overall remained high, and the sustainability of price increases is questionable. Over the medium to long term, key attention should be paid to grassroots farmers' grain-selling progress, changes in Sinograin's purchasing intensity and the recovery of downstream breeding demand. If grain-selling progress is slow or policy support intensifies, the price bottom will be further consolidated, but conditions for a trend reversal are not yet in place.
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