According to market analysis, JPMorgan Chase's Asia Pacific equity research team released a report titled "Copper Dashboard" (by Lyndon Fagan et al.) on February 3, 2026, indicating that global visible copper inventories have more than doubled within a year. Stocks surged from approximately 470,000 tonnes during the same period last year to around 1 million tonnes, reaching a five-year high. Despite supply disruptions at global mines, inventories continued to climb in the fourth quarter, signaling a shift in the supply-demand balance.
Global inventories doubled in one year, and stockpiling continued unabated even amid mine operational issues. The report highlights that as of February 2026, total global inventories stood at approximately 1 million tonnes, a 113% increase compared to the 470,000 tonnes recorded in the same period of 2025, marking a fresh five-year peak. Notably, this substantial inventory build-up occurred against a backdrop of supply disruptions at mines worldwide, underscoring pronounced weakness on the demand side.
Market signals present a mixed picture from high-frequency indicators. Multiple high-frequency indicators monitored by JPMorgan Chase reveal a complex situation. On one hand, copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) remain in negative territory, indicating persistent tightness in raw material supply and weak bargaining power for smelters during procurement. On the other hand, net speculative positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have started to decline, coupled with a reduction in cancelled warrant volumes. These signals suggest that investor sentiment is turning cautious, with market confidence in near-term price direction showing signs of wavering. As of early February 2026, copper prices held around $5.30 per pound, yet both technical charts and market sentiment indicate short-term downward pressure.
Outlook points to consolidation dominating the near term, pending clearer demand signals. Synthesizing various indicators, JPMorgan Chase maintains a cautious stance on the copper market, forecasting that prices will consolidate around $12,000 per tonne (approximately $5.45 per pound), with near-term risks skewed to the downside. Key contributing factors include: the Chinese market entering the Lunar New Year holiday period, typically a seasonally weak period for demand; elevated global inventory levels exerting inherent pressure on prices; and low operating rates in downstream manufacturing sectors, reflecting insufficient end-consumption momentum. However, JPMorgan also notes that a new phase of market volatility and potential upward movement might only materialize later in the second quarter of 2026, when post-holiday demand recovery signals from China become more definitive. At that juncture, if economic stimulus measures gain traction, infrastructure investment accelerates, or manufacturing orders rebound, copper prices could potentially resume an upward trajectory.
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