Bank of America Securities has revised its baseline forecast for Brent crude oil prices upward to $92.5 per barrel for the current year. The report indicates that prices could surge further if geopolitical conflicts persist beyond two to four weeks or if energy infrastructure sustains damage. Historical data suggests that a sustained loss of over 10 million barrels per day of oil supply for 12 months could drive Brent crude prices from $70 per barrel prior to the U.S.-Iran conflict to a range of $150 to $200. The firm has also lowered its forecast for China's apparent crude oil demand this year to 786 million metric tons, implying a 1% year-on-year decline. Additionally, the natural gas demand growth projection has been reduced from 3% to 2%, as the Asian spot LNG benchmark price (JKM) has surged 91% since late February. Supply disruptions affecting Qatar's LNG exports are expected to keep shipping costs elevated, weakening gas competitiveness and accelerating coal-for-gas substitution, thereby dampening medium-term gas demand growth. Regarding equities, the bank believes PetroChina (00857) will benefit from rising oil and gas prices, raising its net profit after tax forecast for the company by 23% to 185 billion yuan for the year. The target price for PetroChina's H-shares has been increased from HK$10.5 to HK$12, while the A-share target (601857.SH) has been raised from 12.5 yuan to 14 yuan, with a "Buy" rating maintained. Conversely, the bank has cut its net profit after tax forecast for Sinopec (00386) by 12% for the year. The H-share target price has been lowered from HK$6 to HK$5, and the A-share target (600028.SH) has been reduced from 7.6 yuan to 6.3 yuan. A "Buy" rating is maintained, though the company's downstream operations are viewed as more neutral, offering limited earnings upside in a high oil price environment.
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