Fed Faces Crucial Moment as Key PCE Data Looms for International Silver

Deep News12-05 16:40

International silver prices surged over 2% during Friday's Asian afternoon session, breaking above the $58 per ounce level. As of press time, spot silver traded at $58.24/oz, up 2.01%. The white metal shows short-term bullish momentum ahead of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge release. The upcoming PCE report serves not only as an economic health check but also as the final piece of the puzzle before next week's FOMC meeting.

【Key Developments】 The core PCE price index, the Fed's favored inflation measure, will be released at 23:00 Beijing time. With CPI data already delayed, tonight's figures represent the sole inflation guidance before December's policy decision, potentially triggering significant silver price volatility.

Market expectations: - Headline PCE annual rate forecast at 2.8%, slightly higher than August's 2.7% (would mark the highest reading since April 2024) - Monthly PCE expected unchanged at 0.3% - Core PCE annual rate projected steady at 2.9% - Monthly core PCE anticipated unchanged at 0.2%

This delayed report carries outsized importance as the first official inflation reading since late September and could determine whether U.S. stocks break their recent trading range. The government shutdown-induced data backlog has created pent-up uncertainty, leaving investors, analysts, and Fed officials eagerly awaiting clarity.

【Silver Market Analysis】 Thursday saw silver retreat 2.32% to $57.09/oz after better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims data prompted profit-taking. The metal opened lower at $57.942 before filling its gap to $58.767, then plunging to $56.408 before settling at $57.133 - forming a bearish candlestick with equal upper/lower shadows.

Technical outlook: Silver currently consolidates below trendline resistance with weakened momentum but remains above multiple moving average supports, maintaining positive prospects. While correction risks persist, dips could present fresh buying opportunities. Key levels to watch: - Support: $56.45 and $55.70 - Resistance: $57.65 and $58.00

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