On January 28, 2026, Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. (600199.SH) issued its 2025 annual performance forecast, indicating that it has yet to escape the trend of annual losses, although the scale of the loss has narrowed compared to the previous year. The announcement revealed that for 2025, Anhui Golden Seed Winery expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -190 million yuan and -150 million yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of between -210 million yuan and -170 million yuan. Compared to the same period last year, the company's total profit for 2024 was -252 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders was -258 million yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was -267 million yuan, indicating a contraction in losses.
The company attributed the core reason for the projected 2025 loss to the baijiu industry remaining in a period of deep adjustment, with a shrinking market becoming increasingly evident and ongoing intense changes in market channels, which placed significant pressure on Anhui Golden Seed Winery's sales. Although the company optimized its business model and expense management in 2025 and made some progress in consumer cultivation, it was unable to achieve a turnaround that year due to the broader industry environment and continued investment during the cultivation period. An examination of recent performance trends shows that Anhui Golden Seed Winery's operational pressures have become increasingly apparent year by year. Choice data indicates that from 2023 to the third quarter of 2025, the company's operating revenues were 1.469 billion yuan, 925 million yuan, and 628 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.92%, -37.04%, and -22.08% sequentially. Net profits were -19.71 million yuan, -257 million yuan, and -100 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of 89.41%, -1204.46%, and -1.72%, respectively. Net profits attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items were -57.61 million yuan, -267 million yuan, and -109 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of 72.01%, -362.93%, and 2.45%, respectively. Compared to other peers within Anhui province, Anhui Golden Seed Winery's revenue scale shows a significant gap. In the first three quarters of 2025, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited achieved revenue of 16.42 billion yuan, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co., Ltd. achieved 3.174 billion yuan, and Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co., Ltd. achieved 4.516 billion yuan, while Anhui Golden Seed Winery's revenue was only 3.82% of Anhui Gujing Distillery's.
In terms of product mix, Anhui Golden Seed Winery's performance further weakened in 2025, with revenues from products in different price segments showing significant divergence. In the first three quarters of 2025, low-end baijiu priced below 100 yuan per bottle generated revenue of 330 million yuan, a decrease of 103 million yuan from the 433 million yuan in the same period last year, a drop of 23.79%. Mid-range baijiu priced between 100 yuan and 500 yuan generated revenue of 131 million yuan, down 41 million yuan from 172 million yuan in the prior-year period, a decline of 23.83%. Only high-end baijiu priced above 500 yuan saw slight growth, with revenue reaching 51.2661 million yuan, an increase of 3.499 million yuan from 47.7671 million yuan in the same period last year, a growth rate of 7.33%. The combined revenue for these three product categories was 512.2254 million yuan. It is evident that the sharp decline in mid- and low-end baijiu was the primary factor dragging down the company's overall revenue.
In the baijiu industry, where "channels are king," the contraction of channel networks has further intensified the operational pressure on Anhui Golden Seed Winery. As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the total number of the company's distributors was only 629, a net decrease of 13 since the beginning of the year. This included 383 distributors within the province (a net decrease of 2) and 246 distributors outside the province (a net decrease of 11), indicating a more pronounced contraction in out-of-province channels. This channel contraction directly impacted market revenue. In the third quarter of 2025, Anhui Golden Seed Winery's revenue from within the province was 419 million yuan, down 18.16% from 512 million yuan in 2024. Revenue from outside the province was 93.5226 million yuan, a sharp decline of 33.78% from 141 million yuan in 2024, with the drop in out-of-province markets far exceeding that within the province. Pressure from inventory is also a significant concern. As of the third quarter of 2025, Anhui Golden Seed Winery's inventory balance reached 1.531 billion yuan, essentially flat compared to the 1.539 billion yuan at the end of 2024, remaining persistently high. This inventory level accounted for 76.13% of the total current assets (2.011 billion yuan) for the period, making it the largest component of current assets and reflecting the situation where a substantial amount of liquid funds is tied up in inventory. The accumulation of downstream inventory will also impact the company's new sales performance. In terms of turnover efficiency, the inventory turnover ratio for Anhui Golden Seed Winery in the first three quarters of 2025 was only 0.23 times, a decrease of 0.10 times compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of 30.3%, indicating a significant weakening of inventory digestion capacity. It is noteworthy that maintaining a high inventory level over the long term poses a triple risk to the company: Firstly, if market demand remains sluggish, inventory may face impairment risks, directly eroding company profits. Secondly, large amounts of capital tied up in inventory exacerbate liquidity pressure, leading to increased reliance on external financing (short-term borrowings at the end of Q3 2025 grew 36.36% compared to the beginning of 2026), thereby pushing up financial costs and加重ing overall operational pressure. Thirdly, high, hard-to-digest inventory also affects sales in the new fiscal year, causing the company to slow down the practice of pushing inventory onto distributors.
More critically, five consecutive years of losses have depleted Anhui Golden Seed Winery's cash reserves, with consistently negative operating cash flow becoming the most dangerous signal. In the first three quarters of 2025, the net cash flow from operating activities was -118 million yuan. Except for 2023, when it was positive at 89.31 million yuan, this metric has been negative every year since 2016, indicating a prolonged state of cash flow tension. Notably, Anhui Golden Seed Winery initiated a new round of asset disposal in 2025, selling a 92% stake in its controlling subsidiary, Jintaiyang Pharmaceutical, at a discounted price of 126 million yuan in November, which was 10% lower than the initial listing price of 140 million yuan. However, asset sales are merely a stopgap measure. The short-term cash infusion obtained from selling assets can hardly conceal the deep-seated problems in the core business development. If Anhui Golden Seed Winery wishes to fundamentally reverse its operational decline, it still needs to achieve breakthroughs in core areas such as product upgrading, channel expansion, and market demand cultivation.
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