Due to ample supply and mild weather, the United Kingdom's natural gas exports to continental Europe in February reached their highest level for the period since 2023. Grid data shows that, so far this month, the UK has delivered more than 400 million cubic meters of fuel via a key pipeline connection to Belgium. This shift marks a notable change compared to last year, when the UK was a net importer. With European gas storage being drawn down rapidly and demand surging this year, traders have been closely monitoring these flows. The UK has limited gas storage capacity and typically exports to the EU during warmer weather when demand is lower, while importing from the continent during colder winter months.
Wood Mackenzie analyst Theo Kelsy stated, "Compared to the continent, the UK experienced milder weather in February, which stimulated exports—a situation that is historically uncommon." Despite lower domestic demand, the UK's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports have remained high, providing support to the EU, where several LNG terminals faced weather-related disruptions or pipeline constraints this month.
Alongside the rise in exports, discussions about the UK's natural gas market outlook are intensifying. Late last year, the state-owned National Energy System Operator (NESO) warned that declining domestic gas production and increasing reliance on imports could leave the country more vulnerable to unexpected supply disruptions by 2030. For the current year, Wood Mackenzie expects two gas interconnector pipelines linking the UK with the Netherlands and Belgium to be "fully utilized in the direction of continental Europe throughout the summer." Kelsy added, "With underground storage starting the injection season at one of the lowest levels in recent history, we anticipate the UK will receive higher LNG imports and redirect volumes to northwest European markets, as import terminals in other parts of the continent are nearing their capacity limits."
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