According to market data, Bitcoin's price fell to around $63,350 on July 28, engaging in a critical battle with its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $63,275. From a technical perspective, the strong breakout trajectory noted in the July 27 analysis failed to materialize as the price did not reach the $67,370 mark.
Current market attention is focused on the support zone between $63,300 and $63,600. If this level holds, BTC could potentially rebound above $65,000. Conversely, if the daily closing price confirms a break below the moving average, the bearish trend will likely continue, putting the $62,000 level under direct threat.
The selling pressure primarily stems from persistent net outflows from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs. On July 23, 24, and 27, these funds recorded net outflows of $225.18 million, $240.08 million, and $11.64 million, respectively, totaling $476.9 million over three days. This figure stands in stark contrast to the modest net inflow of $33.79 million seen the previous week, indicating that the earlier buying momentum has faded as BTC struggles to hold above $65,000.
Despite the short-term demand weakness, data shows a tightening trend on the supply side of the chain. A CryptoQuant report highlights a structural shift over the past six months: exchange balances have decreased from 2.783 million BTC to 2.705 million BTC, a drop of approximately 78,000 coins. This movement of assets into self-custody wallets is reducing available trading liquidity. While this supply-demand imbalance has not resolved the immediate selling pressure, it suggests that once buying demand returns, the scarcity of spot supply could trigger more significant price volatility.
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