Oil Market Faces Fresh Blow: Middle East Conflict Escalates, Saudi Production and Pipeline Capacity Both Decline

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Saudi Arabia's oil production capacity has decreased by approximately 600,000 barrels per day due to attacks on its energy facilities, while the daily transportation capacity of its East-West pipeline has been reduced by roughly 700,000 barrels, according to a Saudi energy ministry official cited in a Thursday media report. The source did not specify who was responsible for the attacks, although Saudi Arabia has intercepted numerous missiles and drones originating from Iran in recent weeks. The report indicated that recent assaults have disrupted operations at oil, gas, refining, petrochemical, and power facilities in Riyadh, the Eastern Province, and the industrial city of Yanbu. Since the US and Israel initiated military actions against Iran in late February, Saudi Arabia has not previously disclosed the specific impacts of these attacks on oilfield output, refineries, or pipeline transport.

Matt Smith, an analyst at commodity intelligence firm Kpler, stated, "The East-West pipeline is critical for transporting a significant portion of Saudi crude that cannot be exported via the Strait of Hormuz. Any reduction in its capacity will further tighten supplies, which is certainly not positive news for the market." A two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran announced this week appears highly fragile, with Israel continuing its strikes on Lebanon. Concurrently, there are few signs that Iran is lifting its near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a channel that handles nearly one-fifth of global energy shipments.

The Saudi East-West pipeline spans the Arabian Peninsula, connecting major oilfields in the east to the industrial port city of Yanbu on the west coast. The pipeline was originally constructed during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, a period when shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was also attacked, though the disruptions were far less severe than the current "near-closure" situation. If the strait remains blocked, the East-West pipeline becomes Saudi Arabia's sole outlet for crude oil exports.

Reports on Wednesday indicated that, just hours after the US-Iran ceasefire was agreed upon, the vital East-West pipeline, which carries oil to the Red Sea, was attacked. The assault, reportedly involving a drone, targeted a pumping station along the 1,200-kilometer pipeline at approximately 1:00 PM local time. Additionally, sources confirmed that the Manifa oil field was attacked, reducing its production capacity by about 300,000 barrels per day. This follows a previous attack on the Khurais field, which also cut output by 300,000 barrels per day, bringing the total reduction in Saudi production capacity to around 600,000 barrels per day.

The report also noted that several major refining facilities, including the SATORP refinery, were affected by the attacks, directly impacting Saudi Arabia's exports of refined products to global markets. The targeting of key oilfields, pipelines, and refining centers underscores the risks to global energy supplies as conflict spreads across the region. As the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia plays a central role in the global crude market. Prolonged disruptions to its production, refining, or export routes could tighten supplies and heighten price volatility. The Saudi energy ministry source warned that continued attacks will lead to reduced crude supplies, slow recovery efforts, threaten energy security for consuming nations, and increase instability in the oil market.

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