On October 15, the three major A-share indices opened lower and fluctuated, recovering slightly from intraday lows in late trading. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.59% to 3707.48 points; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.43% to 11816.79 points; the ChiNext Index declined 2.92% to 2783.17 points.
A total of 5,108 individual stocks in the entire market declined, with 36 hitting the daily limit up and 36 hitting the daily limit down, and the median price change was -3.04%. Combined turnover across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges was approximately 1.64 trillion yuan, an increase of over 210 billion yuan from 1.43 trillion yuan the previous trading day, showing that volume actually rebounded amid the broad sell-off.
Sectors displayed a pattern of high-low rotation and defensive characteristics. Shipping ports, coal, semiconductors, and memory chips led the declines, while the lithium battery sector was dragged down by the main lithium carbonate contract falling below 100,000 yuan per ton. In contrast, the Guozheng Dividend Index was essentially flat, with 1000 Financials, 1000 Pharmaceuticals, and 1000 Consumer fluctuating within a narrow range. The baijiu sector rose against the trend, with leading stocks hitting the daily limit up, while banks and high-dividend names fell about 1.5%, outperforming the broader market; meanwhile, 1000 Information and 1000 Materials dropped 2.57% and 3.32% respectively, with the divergence between growth and value reaching a year-to-date high.
We believe that today's market adjustment is the result of a combination of domestic and international factors. First, the repricing of overseas inflation is the most direct trigger. U.S. September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both exceeding expectations. After the data was released, the probability of an October rate hike briefly rose from about 21.6% before the release to 43.7%, then retreated; as of the latest reading, the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October is 66.8%, the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 33.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike by December is 62.2%, with the market pricing in December action noticeably higher than for October. Second, the overnight Nasdaq Index fell 1.88% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.3%, transmitting valuation digestion pressure from AI hardware to the domestic market. Third, the overseas lithography equipment leader's 2027 capacity guidance came in below market expectations, triggering a pullback in technology hardware. Fourth, insufficient incremental domestic capital remains the core contradiction: yesterday's turnover had already fallen back to a year-to-date low of 1.43 trillion yuan, aggregate social financing in the first three quarters was 27.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.63 trillion yuan, and September social financing and credit growth mainly relied on government bond issuance; the central bank injected a net 2 trillion yuan... sorry, 200 billion yuan of liquidity on the day, still showing an intent to provide support.
Looking ahead, we believe this round of adjustment is more likely a phased pullback under valuation digestion combined with liquidity constraints, rather than a reversal of the industry trend. The medium- to long-term logic in the broad technology sector remains unchanged. We continue to be bullish on investment opportunities in TMT, advanced high-end manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, and other broad technology sectors as well as the new economy. We recommend selecting high-quality targets with a high degree of matching between valuation and growth during market volatility, and seizing the window to position in high-growth tracks.
MACD golden cross signals have formed, and these stocks are rising well!
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