Abstract
Clean Harbors will release its Q4 2025 results Pre-Market on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, with investor attention on whether revenue growth of about 2.40% year over year and an outsized EPS expansion materialize against management’s prior trajectory and near-term operational execution.
Market Forecast
Consensus-style estimates embedded in the latest projections point to Clean Harbors delivering Q4 revenue of 1.47 billion, EBIT of 156.09 million, and adjusted EPS of 1.61, translating into year-over-year growth of 2.40%, 12.47%, and 18.32%, respectively. Margin forecasts for gross profit and net profit are not explicitly provided, but the spread between expected EBIT and revenue growth implies a modest expansion in operating profitability if mix and cost discipline hold as anticipated. Environmental Services remains the core revenue engine, and the projections indicate a stable top line with scope for operating leverage as utilization and pricing discipline continue to underpin earnings quality. The most promising segment into Q4 appears to be Safety-Kleen Sustainability Solutions, which produced 218.04 million in revenue last quarter; while year-over-year detail by segment is not disclosed here, its earnings sensitivity to mix and productivity sets it up as a potential incremental margin driver this quarter.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, Clean Harbors reported revenue of 1.55 billion, a gross profit margin of 32.33%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 119.00 million with a net profit margin of 7.67%, and adjusted EPS of 2.21, with revenue up 1.30% year over year and adjusted EPS up 4.25% year over year. GAAP net profit declined by 6.39% quarter over quarter, reflecting a softer sequential cadence even as year-over-year growth persisted. A key financial highlight was the company’s ability to sustain gross margin in the low 30% range while absorbing cost and volume variability, resulting in EBIT of 193.01 million and adjusted EPS that were modestly below estimates. Main business highlights included Environmental Services contributing 1.33 billion, or roughly 85.93% of total sales, anchoring the quarter’s performance while total company revenue grew 1.30% year over year, with segment-level year-over-year growth not disclosed in this dataset.
Current Quarter Outlook
Environmental Services: Execution, Pricing, and Utilization to Anchor Q4 Performance
The base case for Q4 centers on Environmental Services maintaining revenue leadership and translating steady volume execution and pricing discipline into operating leverage. With revenue projected at 1.47 billion for the consolidated business and EBIT expected to grow faster than sales, the setup implies a solid contribution from Environmental Services if throughput, service mix, and project timing unfold in line with internal plans. The recent quarter’s gross margin of 32.33% offers a constructive starting point; if cost containment and operational efficiency are sustained, Q4 margins could benefit from incremental fixed-cost absorption even without an outsized step-up in revenue. Management’s cadence in the prior quarter showed that they can keep gross margin consistent through mixed volume patterns; replicating that in Q4 would support the forecasted 12.47% year-over-year rise in EBIT and an 18.32% expansion in EPS, which implicitly counts on Environmental Services to do the heavy lifting. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, the prior decline in GAAP net profit underscores the importance of execution this quarter: maintaining schedule adherence on higher-value services, minimizing outages at key facilities, and supporting contract compliance are the levers that can narrow the gap between a modest top-line gain and a materially greater increase in operating earnings. The near-term watch items within this segment include the blend of higher-margin services versus lower-margin activities and throughput consistency; even small gains in mix can produce disproportionate effects on EBIT, given the cost base already in place for Q4 operations.
Safety-Kleen Sustainability Solutions: Margin Sensitivity Positions Segment for Incremental Upside
Safety-Kleen Sustainability Solutions (SKSS) contributed 218.04 million last quarter and remains well positioned to magnify bottom-line progress even on modest revenue movements. The company’s Q4 projections imply consolidated EBIT growth outpacing revenue, which is consistent with an environment in which SKSS can harvest productivity gains and favorable internal mix dynamics. Operationally, the segment’s ability to optimize network efficiency, manage collection and processing costs, and elevate re-refining throughput underpins the possibility of incremental margin capture this quarter. Because SKSS’s profitability can react to execution on utilization, yield, and product mix, it can meaningfully influence consolidated EBIT even without being the largest revenue contributor. The Q3 outcome, where the company held gross margin above 32% despite sequential net income pressure, suggests that scale and process improvements can buffer volatility and set up a healthier conversion of revenue to operating profit in the subsequent quarter. In Q4, close attention to network uptime, disciplined logistics, and product slate optimization should guide how much of the EBIT outperformance versus revenue can be realized; this is the operational terrain where SKSS often adds incremental value. While year-over-year growth detail by segment is not available in the dataset, the consolidated guidance contour—revenue up 2.40% with EBIT up 12.47%—is consistent with a constructive SKSS contribution to the quality of earnings.
What Will Matter Most for the Stock This Quarter
The most immediate driver for the stock is whether the company delivers on the spread between revenue growth and operating profit growth implied by the estimates, evidenced by the 12.47% year-over-year EBIT increase against a 2.40% gain in revenue. If Q4 prints a clean conversion of revenue into EBIT and adjusted EPS at or above the 1.61 mark, it would validate that mix and cost levers are compounding in the right direction, potentially easing concerns raised by the prior quarter’s modest estimate shortfalls. The cadence of GAAP net profit—down 6.39% sequentially last quarter—sets a low bar for quarter-on-quarter stabilization; even a flat to slightly higher sequential net profit, if coupled with stronger adjusted EPS delivery, could support a constructive post-print reaction. Investors will also focus on any guardrails that management lays out for the early part of 2026, since the current quarter’s estimates imply a step-up in efficiency: clarity on capital deployment priorities, organic investment, and network optimization will shape the sustainability of earnings quality. Free cash flow commentary and any updates on capital allocation, including maintenance versus growth spending and potential repurchases, can influence the multiple assigned to the projected earnings path, particularly if EBIT growth proves more resilient than top-line growth. Finally, any signals around the durability of gross margin above 30% will be parsed as a proxy for pricing discipline and cost control, both of which are critical to the translation of modest revenue growth into outsize EPS gains.
Analyst Opinions
Within the eligible period since January 1, 2026 through February 11, 2026, the collected published views are predominantly bullish, with a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 100% to 0%. A notable example is Citi, where analyst Bryan Burgmeier reiterated a Buy rating and set a price target of $274.00 in January 2026, signaling confidence in the company’s ability to expand earnings even with measured top-line growth. This stance aligns with the current-quarter projections: revenue is estimated at 1.47 billion, up 2.40% year over year, while EBIT and EPS are expected to grow 12.47% and 18.32%, respectively. The implication is that execution on margin levers—cost control, mix enhancement, and operational efficiency—can deliver disproportionate bottom-line progress. From an institutional perspective, such a view typically reflects comfort with near-term throughput planning, pricing discipline across services, and a credible runway for productivity gains at the segment level. The fact that EBIT growth is forecast to materially outpace revenue in Q4 supports the argument that Clean Harbors is entering the print with a setup conducive to positive earnings surprise on profitability, even if the top-line trajectory remains steady rather than rapid. In effect, the bullish camp is leaning into the quality of earnings rather than the quantity of revenue, with attention on the conversion metrics that matter most to durable value creation. The near-term test will be the reconciliation of those expectations with the actual Q4 delivery: should management report adjusted EPS at or above 1.61, demonstrate year-over-year EBIT expansion near low double digits, and convey continuity in gross margin discipline, the bullish thesis would remain intact. Conversely, if operating leverage fails to materialize against a modest revenue growth backdrop, the debate may shift back to the sustainability of incremental margin gains. For now, the balance of professional opinion in early 2026 supports the view that Clean Harbors can translate disciplined execution into EPS growth that outstrips the pace of sales, which is precisely what the estimates imply for the upcoming report.
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