JPMorgan’s Chief Sees a Boom Coming

The New York Times2021-04-08

Jamie Dimon tells the bank’s investors to prepare for an economic upswell.Jamie Dimon thinks a boom is coming — but worries about too much of a good thing.Credit...Jeenah Moon/ReutersDear shareholders...

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Junski
2021-04-08
Junski
Let’s hope so.
- WeiKeong:
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The widely read letter is not just an overview of the bank’s business but also covers Mr. Dimon’s thoughts on everything from leadership lessons to public policy prescriptions.“The U.S. economy will likely boom.”A combination of excess savings, deficit spending, a potential infrastructure bill, vaccinations and “euphoria around the end of the pandemic,” Mr. Dimon wrote, may create a boom that “could easily run into 2023.” That could justify high equity valuations, but not the price of U.S. debt, given the “huge supply” soon to hit the market. There is a chance that a rise in inflation would be “more than temporary,” he wrote, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates aggressively. “Rapidly raising rates to offset an overheating economy is a typical cause of a recession,” he wrote, but he hopes for “the Goldilocks scenario” of fast growth, gently increasing inflation and a measured rise in interest rates.“Banks are playing an increasingly smaller role in the financial system.”Mr. Dimon cited competition from an already large shadow banking system and fintech companies, as well as “Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and now Walmart.” He argued those nonbank competitors should be more strictly regulated; their growth has “partially been made possible” by avoiding banking rules, he wrote. 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