Abstract
BlackBerry will report fiscal Q2 results on September 24, 2026 Pre-MKt; this preview summarizes consensus forecasts for revenue, margins, net profit and adjusted EPS, reviews last quarter’s results, and compiles the prevailing analyst view for the upcoming print.
Market Forecast
Consensus for the current fiscal quarter points to total revenue of 145.63 million US dollars, an adjusted EPS of 0.04, and EBIT of 21.93 million, implying year-over-year growth of 19.32% for revenue, 236.00% for EPS, and 140.42% for EBIT. The company’s prior report indicated a revenue base of 152.90 million US dollars and adjusted EPS of 0.04, with year-over-year increases of 25.64% and 100.00%, respectively. Margin expectations are constructive relative to the software mix, though no explicit gross or net margin guidance is available; the focus remains on sustaining software-led expansion in revenue and profitability on a year-over-year basis.
By business mix, Secure Communications and QNX each represent near-equal pillars of the model, with Secure Communications contributing 73.60 million US dollars and QNX 72.30 million last quarter; the growth outlook centers on embedded software and security as customers expand deployments. The most promising segment is QNX given expanding design wins and platform content, with last quarter’s 72.30 million US dollars serving as the near-term run-rate and a positive year-over-year trajectory implied by management’s emphasis on pipeline conversion.
Last Quarter Review
BlackBerry’s previous fiscal quarter delivered revenue of 152.90 million US dollars, a gross profit margin of 78.29%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.50 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 5.56%, and adjusted EPS of 0.04; year over year, revenue rose 25.64% and adjusted EPS increased 100.00%.
A key highlight was the outperformance versus estimates, with revenue surpassing consensus by 15.13 million US dollars and EBIT reaching 32.20 million, more than double the forecast, underscoring cost discipline and operating leverage in software. By segment, Secure Communications generated 73.60 million US dollars and QNX 72.30 million, while Licenses, IP and Other contributed 7.00 million; the software-heavy mix supported the 78.29% gross margin and sequential improvement in operating metrics.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core software revenue mix and margin durability
The investment debate this quarter centers on how the software mix supports margins while revenue normalizes from last quarter’s outperformance. With consensus revenue at 145.63 million US dollars, the implied sequential dip reflects typical fiscal seasonality and order timing, not an adverse shift in demand. The previous quarter’s 78.29% gross margin provides a strong base; maintaining a similar level would signal that pricing, subscription renewals, and support contracts remain stable across government and enterprise security cohorts. Management’s execution on software renewal cycles and controlled operating expenses is likely to be the lever for EBIT delivery near the 21.93 million estimate, even if revenue mix skews between Secure Communications and QNX.
QNX momentum and design-win conversion
QNX continues to be the platform with the highest optionality for upside as design wins from prior cycles convert to production, raising per-vehicle software content and multi-domain adoption. The prior quarter’s 72.30 million US dollars revenue from QNX establishes a healthy run-rate; if program ramps in premium and commercial vehicle platforms proceed on schedule, QNX can outgrow the group average through the fiscal year. The key swing factors are program start-of-production timing and the breadth of safety-certified modules adopted, which can lift margin mix given the high incremental gross margin on embedded licenses and royalties. Any commentary on backlog visibility and cumulative royalty-bearing vehicles will be closely parsed as a readthrough for the second half.
Secure Communications resilience and contract cadence
Secure Communications at 73.60 million US dollars last quarter demonstrates stable demand across public sector and regulated industries, where cybersecurity and secure mobility remain priority budgets. The cadence of renewals, multi-year contracts, and cross-sell into endpoint and communications suites will determine whether revenue can hold near the prior run-rate despite potential procurement pauses. Given the elevated gross margin profile, even modest growth in this segment supports consolidated margin stability. Investors will watch for indicators of seat expansion, churn containment, and pipeline conversion within federal and international accounts as markers of sustainability.
Stock-price drivers into the print
Three variables are likely to set the tone for the shares around the release. First, qualitative guidance on the second-half revenue trajectory relative to the 19.32% year-over-year forecast will shape expectations for sustained double-digit growth. Second, gross margin commentary versus the 78.29% prior-quarter level will inform whether mix or pricing dynamics are changing. Third, QNX program updates, including any quantification of new design wins, SOP timing, or incremental content, can shift sentiment given the segment’s operating leverage. Delivery near or above the 0.04 adjusted EPS estimate with clear visibility on pipeline conversion would likely validate the current consensus path.
Analyst Opinions
Recent institutional commentary skews bullish. One highlighted view comes from Stifel, which initiated coverage of BlackBerry with a Buy rating, arguing the market undervalues its position as a mission-critical software layer in the physical AI stack and a key partner across the semiconductor ecosystem. This positioning emphasizes the company’s leverage to growth vectors from cloud to edge—spanning vehicles, robotics, industrial systems, and medical devices—and aligns with the consensus expecting year-over-year gains in revenue, EPS, and EBIT this quarter. Across collected opinions, the ratio tilts in favor of bullish commentary, with positive notes focusing on software mix durability, high incremental margins in embedded platforms like QNX, and the potential for continued operating leverage as design wins translate to royalties. The bullish case also points to the company’s ability to outperform estimates when execution aligns with contract timing and ramp schedules, as seen last quarter with material upside in EBIT versus expectations. Overall, the majority outlook anticipates that the September 24, 2026 Pre-MKt report can reinforce the narrative of mix-driven profitability and embedded-software growth, keeping investor attention on second-half conversion milestones and gross margin consistency.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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